For the last two years, I did something that is absolute proof that I have no life. I simulated the Eagles draft 1000 times. It took me a few hours each time just to collect all the results.

Now a year later, I apparently have even less of a life. Because I timesed that by 10 and simulated the draft 10,000 times this year.

I did it by using 3 different Mock Draft tools. Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Network, and ESPN. This way we get a more diverse pool of players, and the results aren’t thrown off by 1 website’s Big Board, or what they think the Eagles’ needs are.

I did 3,333 on each of them, except PFF where I did 3,334 to get an even 10,000.

I should say I originally tried using a 4th website. I did about 50 simulations on NFL Draft Buzz. But when Bo Nix showed up for the Eagles 7 times, and Caleb Williams wasn’t even the 1st picka bunch of  times, I thought those results were pretty much worthless.

To be clear, the computer is making this pick. I have no say in the pick or sway over the results. I am just clicking a button 10,000 times, and then recording the result.

With 3 computers, each running a mock draft from each of those websites, I was able to do about 20 drafts per minute. I will let someone else calculate how long it took me to get to get to 10,000 with that pace, but it was over 10 hours.

The Results Of These Eagles Draft Simulations Have Been Surprisingly Accurate

This is now my 3rd year simulating the Eagles draft way too many times. In 2022, Jordan Davis came in as the most common pick, showing up 329 times. That is who they wound up selecting.

Last year, Jalen Carter was the most common pick, showing up 192 times at pick 10. That is who they eventually selected.

Coincidence? I think so. I am not going to make some bold claim that I developed an infallible method of predicting the picks. Two times does not a pattern make.

But it is funny it got it right both times. And if gets it right this time, I might try to find a way to use these powers to predict the lotto numbers.

Here Are The Results From 10,000 Simulations Of The Eagles Draft:

• Pro Football Focus

  PFF
  Player	# of times
  Laitu Latu- ED- UCLA	579
  Cooper DeJean- CB- Iowa	425
  Kool-Aid McKinstry- CB- Alabama	376
  Nate Wiggins- CB- Clemson	295
  Amarius Mims- OL- Georgia	241
  JC Latham- OL- Alabama	201
  Dallas Turner- ED- Alabama	167
  Terrion Arnold – CB- Alabama	155
  Olumuyia Fashanu- OT- Penn State	145
  Taliese Fuaga- OT- Oregon State	129
  Graham Barton – OG- Duke	123
  Jackson Powers Johnson- OG/ C- Oregon	122
  Brian Thomas JR- WR- LSU	101
  Adonai Mitchell- WR- Texas	91
  Tyler Nubin- S- Minnesota	67
  TJ Tampa- CB- Iowa State	34
  Ladd McConkey- WR- Georgia	32
  Payton Wilson- LB- North Carolina State	27
  Byron Murphy- DT- Texas	15
  Jared Verse- ED- Florida State	9

  The Eagles haven’t taken a Corner with a 1st round pick since 2002. PFF seems to think that will change.

  Laiatu Latu might led the way here 579 picks. But the next 3 guys are all Corners. 5 corners in total showed up with PFF. With Cooper DeJean being the most common one. Corner led all positions with 1,130 picks out of 3,334.

  But while cornerback led the way with total picks, they still do know who Howie is. Because the Offensive Line had the most total players show up. 6 different O-linemen showed up at least once, for a total of 961 picks.

  Meanwhile, there was 925 simulations where they picked a defensive lineman, with 5 total showing up at least once. Add that together with the O-Line, and 1,886 times the pick was someone on the line.

  More Notes On These Results:

  • 101 WRs were picked. It doesn’t feel like an immediate need, but they have invested so much in the offense this off-season, so why not triple down on that side of the ball? Imagine Brian Thomas Jr paired with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. It is not the best use of resources, but it would at the very least be fun.
  • The other 94 picks were Safeties and Linebackers. Drafting a corner would break a trend, but drafting one of those positions would be quite shocking.
  • Alabama players led the way with 899 appearances here out of 3,334. Only 1 other school had more than 500, UCLA. And that was just Laiatu Latu by himself.
  • PFF by far had the most unique players drafted. 22 different names. 4 more than ESPN, and 6 more than PFN.

• Pro Football Network

  PFN
  Player	# of times
  Cooper DeJean- CB- Iowa	701
  Nate Wiggins- CB- Clemson	634
  Chop Robinson- ED- Penn State	436
  Kool-Aid McKinstry- CB- Bama	361
  Laiatu Latu- ED- UCLA	287
  Jared Verse- ED- Florida	223
  Brian Thomas Jr- WR- LSU	156
  Terrion Arnold- CB- Bama	145
  Keon Coleman- WR- Florida State	121
  Kamren Kinchens-S- Miami	81
  Dallas Turner- ED- Bama	71
  Byron Murphy- DT- Texas	57
  Adonai Mitchell- WR- Texas	31
  Quinyon Mitchell- CB- Toldeo	29

  PFN was even more corner-happy than PFF. 1,870 of the picks were corners. Over half the 3,333 total simulations. Cooper DeJean led the way there. He was also the most often drafted corner at PFF and the 2nd most drafted player total.

  Behind him was Nate Wiggins, with Chop Robinson being the most often drafted non-corner. After finishing 1st with PFF, Laiatu Latu gets another top-5 finish

  Other Notes:

  • 0 Offensive Linemen. Not a single 1. It’s like PFN has never met Howie. Their logic will be that it is not an immediate need. And it isn’t. But that has never stopped Howie before. O-Line is 100% in play at pick 22, and many will tell you it is the most likely pick.
  • There were 946 Defensive Linemen selected, 889 off the Edge. After the Reddick trade, you can’t rule it out.
  • 405 WRs. Last year PFN barely touched WRs, having a WR show up just 3 times at Pick 30. But now they seem to think it is the 3rd most likely position.
  • Even with Cooper DeJean being the only player selected from Iowa, Iowa was the school with the most representation. 2nd place is Clemson, who also only had 1 player, Nate Wiggins
  • Alabama came 3rd at 577 and had the most players show up with 3.

• ESPN

  ESPN
  Player	# of times
  Cooper DeJean- CB- Iowa	578
  Quinyon Mitchell- CB- Toledo	536
  Amrarius Mims- OT- Georgia	456
  Laiatu Latu- ED- UCLA	344
  Graham Barton- OG-Duke	323
  Tyler Guyton- OT Oklahoma-	232
  Brian Thomas JR- WR- LSU	151
  JC Latham- OT- Bama	122
  Xavier Worthy- WR- Texas	107
  Nate Wiggins- CB- Clemson	101
  Jer’Zhan Newton- DT- illinios	91
  Jared Verse- ED- Florida State	82
  Jackson Powers-Johnson- C- Oregon	77
  Chop Robinson- ED- Penn State	76
  Terrion Arnold- CB- Alabama	56
  Darius Robinson- ED- Missouri	1

  Once again, Cooper DeJean leads the way. I will share the full results between the 3 sites next, but you don’t need to even be good at math to guess who will come in at number 1.

  We do see a somewhat new name in 2nd place though. Quinyon Mitchell. He never showed up with PFF and only showed up 29 times on PFN. But here his name popped up 536 times, just narrowly behind DeJean at 578 times.

  It’s another good showing for Latu as well, he came in 4th with 344 total appearances.

  More Notes:

  • The positional breakdown is 1,271 corners, 1,210 O-Linemen, 594 D-Linemen, 258 WRs
  • No Safeties, no Linebackers. ESPN knows who they are dealing with in Howie
  • Not really sure how someone only showed up 1 time. A player never showing up at all makes sense. But if they can be drafted once, you think in 3,333 times they would show up at least one other time.
  • After dominating on the other two sites, only 2 players from Bama showed up for ESPN. JC Latham and Terrion Arnold. No Kool-Aid, who they seem to have dropping out of the 1st with his injury, and no Dallas Turner.
  • 1,804 Linemen (Offensive or Defensive) were taken.

• Full Results

  Total
  Cooper DeJean- CB- Iowa	1704
  Laitu Latu- ED- UCLA	1210
  Nate Wiggins- CB- Clemson	1030
  Kool-Aid McKinstry- CB- Alabama	737
  Amarius Mims- OL- Georgia	697
  Quinyon Mitchell- CB- Toldeo	565
  Chop Robinson- ED- Penn State	512
  Graham Barton – OT- Duke	446
  Brian Thomas JR- WR- LSU	408
  Terrion Arnold – CB- Alabama	356
  JC Latham- OL- Alabama	323
  Jared Verse- ED- Florida State	314
  Dallas Turner- ED- Alabama	238
  Tyler Guyton- OT Oklahoma-	232
  Jackson Powers Johnson- OG- Oregon	199
  Olumuyia Fashanu- OT- Penn State	145
  Taliese Fuaga- OT- Oregon State	129
  Adonai Mitchell- WR- Texas	122
  Keon Coleman- WR- Florida State	121
  Xavier Worthy- WR- Texas	107
  Jer’Zhan Newton- DT- illinios	91
  Kamren Kinchens-S- Miami	81
  Byron Murphy- DT- Texas	72
  Tyler Nubin- S- Minnesota	67
  TJ Tampa- CB- Iowa State	34
  Ladd McConkey- WR- Georgia	32
  Payton Wilson- LB- North Carolina State	27
  Darius Robinson- ED- Missouri	1

  As you may have assumed from seeing the numbers from the individual websites, Cooper DeJean ran away with this one. Nearly 500 more picks than the next guy, who was Laiatu Latu.

  Corners in general made up 3 of the top 5 spots.

  Last year at pick 30, there were 29 total players. At pick 10 there was 19. So as you get deeper into the draft, there will likely be a wider range of options.

  You would think doing 10 times as many simulations would expand those numbers, but that didn’t seem to be the case. After a while, the same names keep showing up, with just a few outliers sneaking in.

  Notes

  • 28 total players were picked at least once.
  • There were 6 players who showed up at least once on all 3 sites. Brian Thomas Jr, Cooper DeJean, Laiatu Latu, Terrion Arnold, Jared Verse, and Nate Wiggins.
  • 16 players showed up on 2 of the 3 sites

• Breakdown By Position

  By Position
  Cornerback	4426
  Edge Rusher	2275
  Offensive Line	2171
  Wide Reciever	790
  Defensive Tackle	163
  Safety	148
  Linebacker	27

  Cornerback ran away with this. Over 2000 more than any other position. Corners made up 44.3% of all selections. The 3 sites are in agreement, corner is the Eagles’ biggest need. That combined with it being a deep corner draft, has them being paired with the Eagles at a crazy rate.

  Even if you combine Offensive and Defensive Linemen, they only end up with 20 more selections than corners.

  Most people in the know say the Eagles will either go corner, OL, or DL. So in that regard, this feels accurate. Will they actually go corner for once? We will find out on Thursday night. But the computer is very confident that will be the case. And it is very confident it will come in the form of Cooper DeJean.

• Breakdown By College

  By College
  Iowa	1704
  Alabama	1654
  UCLA	1210
  Clemson	1030
  Georgia	729
  Penn State	657
  Toledo	565
  Duke	446
  Florida State	435
  LSU	408
  Texas	301
  Oklahoma	232
  Oregon	199
  Oregon State	129
  Illinois	91
  Miami	81
  Minnesota	67
  Iowa State	34
  North Carolina State	27
  Missouri	1

  How much did DeJean dominate this simulation? Iowa was number 1 on this list even though he is the only player from there to show up in these mock drafts.

  Alabama came 2nd, and that was very much a team effort. 4 players, Kool-Aid, Arnold, Turner, and Latham showed up. Kool-Aid showed up the most, but all 4 had at least 200 appearances.

  Georgia seems on track to break the trend. Only 2 showed up at all, Amarius Mims and Ladd McConkey. Mims came 5th overall, and that was enough to put Georgia 5th overall, but McConkey was pretty much an aberration, showing up just 32 times out of 10,000.

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