The 2024 season began with one goal. The Philadelphia Phillies needed to avenge a disappointing NLCS loss and capitalize on their window of opportunity to win a World Series with a top-tier MLB roster.
The Phillies finished with the second best record in the majors. They’ll host the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park with the pressure heightened after two heartbreaking postseason exits in two consecutive years.
Phillies in Search of World Series
Yesterday, 97.5 The Fanatic analyzed reasons the Phillies will win the World Series. There’s optimism entering Red October, as the Phillies are arguably the most complete team in the MLB Postseason field.
Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and most Phillies stars have reached beloved status in Philadelphia. Citizens Bank Park will explode during the National League Division Series with the rally towels of Red October. The fan base is ready for another ring.
What about the contrary? What if the bats go cold? What if the bullpen struggles? Is the MLB Postseason really just a crapshoot?
What potential weaknesses could cause a disappointing exit for the Phillies?
Offensive Volatility
Skeptical Phillies fans have kept this concern at the top of their minds since the Arizona Diamondbacks neutralized a red hot lineup and stunningly slipped away with the National League pennant one year ago.
Phillies hitters struck out 45 times in four NLCS losses. The concern about a boom or bust offense grew when the Phillies went in a contact slump in the early weeks of September 2024 before clinching the NL East and the first-round bye.
Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed a weakness of the 2010 and 2011 Phillies teams that lost playoff series to teams with less talented rosters. He believes the added opportunity for opponents to scout the Phillies heavily during their long stretch as World Series contenders helped write a more legitimate book on ways to attack their best hitters.
Although the Phillies finished just 16th in the majors in strikeouts in 2024, their chase rate ranked 25th. Contending pitching staffs from the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees inflicted a midsummer slump by throwing breaking balls early in counts more often.
Will the Phillies show enough patience to lay off the cheese?
The wounds of the NLCS collapse and the incredible intensity of Philadelphia fans has maximized the scrutiny of the boom or bust offense.
The concern is real. However, it applies to all 30 MLB teams (to varying extents).
Rob Thomson will submit a lineup card with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner. The Phillies finished the 2024 regular season fifth in runs scored, fifth in batting average, tied for fourth in OPS, and seventh in home runs.
Dave Dombrowski assembled a lineup in the top tier of MLB teams. At least seven hitters in the order provide a legitimate threat to opposing pitching staffs. Even the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees haven’t said the same all the way throughout 2024.
The MLB Postseason Crapshoot
The Phillies might be the most complete team entering the MLB Postseason. That also might not mean much.
It meant nothing in 2010 when the San Francisco Giants upset the two-time defending NL champs or in 2011 when four aces couldn’t beat the St. Louis Cardinals.
Pat Gillick spoke to MLB.com summarizing a conversation he had with John Middleton years ago. The architect of the 2008 World Series team took the concept of the MLB Postseason crapshoot to an extreme.
“Good organizations consistently produce good teams that compete for and often get in the playoffs, but the difference between getting in the playoffs and winning the World Series is luck. Because, to win the World Series, you have to have 25 healthy guys who are playing well at precisely the right moment in time.” –Pat Gillick
The chance of an upset always exists. However, Dave Dombrowski doesn’t buy the idea of a crapshoot where the best MLB teams have the same odds as lesser opponents in the postseason. He addressed the conversation with John Clark during spring training.
“I don’t think it’s a crapshoot. I also think that there’s a way that clubs can excel for the long season and maybe aren’t quite as good for the playoffs and vice versa.” –Dave Dombrowski
The future Hall of Fame executive pointed to starting pitching as a key ingredient to teams built for playoff runs. He also emphasized potential advantages for teams coming off a strong regular season.
The Phillies will send a well-rested Zack Wheeler to the mound for Game 1 of the NLDS. The New York Mets just finished a stretch of eight games in seven days using their high-leverage arms with the season on the line virtually the entire time.
“Sometimes you give during the regular season to know that you’re going to be more prepared for the postseason.” -Dave Dombrowski
A Tough Task for Carlos Estevez
Dave Dombrowski attempted to solidify the bullpen by acquiring Carlos Estevez on July 27.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander has changed the closer by committee approach, pitching in the ninth inning in 19 of his 20 games with the Phillies.
Estevez saved six games in eight chances to finish the regular season. He gave up hard contact often enough to prevent anyone in Philadelphia from referring to him solidly as a lockdown closer.
His 32.9% fly ball rate in 2024 easily exceeds the MLB average of 24.1%. Estevez also finished below the league average in strikeouts per nine.
A pitcher who gives up fly balls is vulnerable to a mishap like the game-tying home run that bounced out of Johan Rojas’ glove against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 9.
The fluky nature of fly balls at Citizens Bank Park only heightens the concern. Estevez’ walk rate has also risen in his short time since joining the Phillies, and his strikeouts have dropped.
The right-handed flamethrower is not some incredible liability waiting to blow up in the playoffs. He’s developed into a legitimate MLB closer in recent seasons.
The Phillies still also have one of the best bullpens of any remaining team.
However, playoff teams can lose a series with one bad outing. Look at Dombrowski’s playoff history to see accomplished relievers with forgettable performances.
Joaquín Benoit allowed a grand slam in the 2013 ALCS to David Ortiz to change the course of Dombrowski’s tenure with the Detroit Tigers. Craig Kimbrel couldn’t hold the Diamondbacks off the board last October.
All pitchers face high stakes during the MLB Postseason. Dombrowski traded for a reliever he believes can handle the intensity of Philadelphia and the pressure of big moments with his “bulldog” approach.
“He’s got an above average fastball. He’s got a plus slider. He’s a bulldog on the mound. He’s a guy that has developed a change-up.” -Dave Dombrowski
The Red October crowd will sit on the edge of their seats regardless of who the Phillies send to the mound. The Phillies are probably more comfortable with Estevez than some of their opponents will be in the ninth.
However, Dombrowski took a risk to part with a significant return package in his biggest trade of 2024 to exorcise the demons of past bullpen mishaps. Did he make the right acquisition?
Ranger Suarez Slump
The Phillies pushed back the midseason injury timeline for Ranger Suarez longer than initially expected before his eventual return on August 24.
The Venezuelan lefty never regained the form that made him one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the majors during the first half of the season.
He posted a 5.74 ERA in his final seven starts over 31 ⅓ innings. The slump peaked in a disastrous final start against the Miami Marlins.
Ricky Bottalico took the stage at 97.5 The Fanatic Fan Fest to discuss mechanical issues he’s seen from Ranger Suarez.
“As a pitcher, you use your legs all the time. If you watched him last night (September 27), he wasn’t pushing off. He wasn’t driving off of his legs. He was just throwing all upper body. When you do that, it’s going to be flat in the zone. It’s going to be slower.” -Ricky Bottalico
The MLB Playoff schedule will force teams to use four starting pitchers on regular rest. However, Rob Thomson will likely ask Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez for more length.
The Phillies skipper pulled Ranger Suarez after 3 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 1 of the NLDS last October. He deployed his bullpen smoothly using six relievers to slam the door for a 3-0 victory.
Expect a similar intended formula in his starts in Red October.
Outfield Offense
Nick Castellanos shook off a rough early-season slump to pull his season numbers back toward respectability. He’ll hit in the middle of the order during the playoffs, but can any other outfielders provide offense?
Brandon Marsh finished the regular season with a 32.4% strikeout rate in the bottom third percentile of qualified MLB hitters. Left-handers held him to a .192 average in 78 at-bats.
While Marsh is unlikely to start against lefties, can Austin Hays prove himself fully healthy and develop a rhythm as a lineup regular? He hasn’t produced much in a short, injury-riddled stint with the Phillies since the MLB Trade Deadline.
Johan Rojas brings a good glove in center field. However, he left room for improvement offensively throughout the season despite more than enough playing time and the opportunity to mature.
Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens will most likely make the NLDS roster. Two capable bench bats will allow Rob Thomson to make moves more aggressively.
Thomson admitted in June that he regrets not pinch hitting for Rojas earlier in Game 7 of the NLCS. Don’t expect him to pass on the opportunity to use Wilson or Clemens in a key spot to help offset the offensive shortcomings of his outfield rotation.
