By Dylan MacKinnon
Carson Wentz once again played every snap for the Colts. Also important, the Colts finally won a game, meaning they at least somewhat stay in contention, making it less likely Wentz ever gets benched. Here is the week 4 snap numbers for Wentz.
Week 4 Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 72
Total Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 271
Team Snaps- 276
Wentz could miss the next 85 snaps without falling below 75% of the snaps. It does not seem likely to be relevant, but he could miss 114 snaps before he falls below 70%. The 70% number only matters if Colts make the playoffs. They are currently 1-3.
What does help the Colts is the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans all lost as well. That brings the Titans to 2-2, Texans to 1-3, and Jaguars to 0-4. So Colts despite their awful play so far, are still in the race for the AFC South. Now one of their losses was vs the Titans, and the Titans beat them fairly badly, but still, one game out.
Despite the fact the more they loss the higher that potential first gets, it could still benefit the Eagles if the Colts win a bit. If Colts are out of contention, they very well could bench Wentz to prevent him from getting to 75% of the snaps. Ideally they would be semi competitive until the point of no return where the Colts would not be able to get Wentz below 75%.
The Colts average 69 snaps per game. They are on track for 1,173 snaps. So right now Wentz would need to play 880 snaps to be above 75%. That means he needs 609 more snaps to reach 75% on the season. Wentz needs to play at least 9 more games to have a chance at laying more than 70% of the snaps. That would take them right into their bye week, with 4 games left on the other side. Even if they benched him after the bye, he still might have enough snaps to stay above 75%.
If the season ended today, the Colts pick would be the 6th overall. That seems like a very good thing. But if that remains the case, eventually Wentz would be snapped. Eagles need the Colts to do a bit better. Ideally the rest of the AFC South teams continue to struggle, and the Colts can remains competitive with 6 to 7 wins wins.
Also of note, the team the Colts beat is the Dolphins. The Eagles will get the Dolphins first rounder no matter what, and right now, it is the 3rd overall pick. Tua is still hurt, and now Will Fuller and Byron Jones are also hurt. We do not yet know if those are serious. It might not be 3rd overall, but there is a very good chance that pick ends up being very high. Not bad when they got it by going back in the first round and still getting a guy many wanted them to take at 6th overall. Also important to not the Eagles own pick is currently 8th overall.
They will not end up with 3 top 10 picks, but they might end up with two, and a third that is not far outside the top 10. They need Dolphins to continue losing, and they need the Colts to be exactly mediocre. A few wins, a few losses. Just competitive enough to not bench Wentz, but bad enough they end up with a high pick. So far so good on that front.
Wentz has played 100% of the snaps in 3 out of 4 weeks. He did suffer one injury that caused him to miss 5 snaps, but other than that there have been no issues threatening his snaps. Colts have already changed who their backup is. The only chance for Wentz being benched it would seem is if they fall out of contention.