Phillies MLB Offseason Profiles: Max Kepler
Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies seemed poised to make a major splash when the MLB offseason began.
A veteran roster with a shrinking World Series window, a future Hall of Fame executive running the front office, and an owner with deep pockets in a large, demanding media market seemed like the perfect formula for hot stove headlines.
Instead, the Phillies added a trio of veterans who collectively showed tremendous upside in 2023 that dipped during injury-plagued seasons in 2024. Will these less expensive, short-term acquisitions keep them atop the National League East and in championship contention?
- Jordan Romano
- Max Kepler
- Jesus Luzardo (coming soon)
Max Kepler
The best MLB player ever to come from the nation of Germany has signed a one-year contract worth $10 million with the Phillies.
Kepler broke out in 2019 with 36 home runs and 90 RBI for the Minnesota Twins in only 134 games. His .519 slugging percentage and 123 OPS+ also set career highs that still stand.
The power surge peaked when Kepler homered in five straight plate appearances against Trevor Bauer, hitting the first three against his AL Central rival on June 6 and then beginning a July 13 game with two long balls in his first two at-bats.
How has Kepler followed up the tremendous breakout? He’s swung back and forth just above or just below the MLB averages in six seasons since with high statistical variance.
| Max Kepler | Batting Average | On-Base Percentage | Slugging Percentage | Home Runs | OPS+ |
| 2019 | .252 | .336 | .519 | 36 | 123 |
| 2020-2022 | .220 | .314 | .392 | 21 (per 162) | 97 |
| 2023 | .260 | .332 | .484 | 24 | 120 |
| 2024 | .253 | .302 | .380 | 8 | 91 |
| MLB Average in 2024 | .243 | .312 | .399 | — | 100 |
Kepler has averaged 22 home runs and 71 RBI per 162 games since the start of the 2020 season, but he struggled in 2024. His .302 OBP and .380 SLG% fell solidly below league average even during a slow offensive season around baseball.
When Dombrowski spoke to the Philadelphia media after the signing, he pointed to a core injury that Kepler played through last season as a major restrictor. The Phillies expect he’ll begin spring training healthy, however.
The Twins leaned toward using Kepler against right-handed pitching throughout his 10 seasons. His splits varied similarly to his overall offensive numbers.
Related Content: Where Do Phillies Stand in MLB Offseason After Jesús Luzardo Trade?
The Phillies will keep Nick Castellanos in right field and ask Kepler to play left field for the first time in his major league career.
Former Twins executive Terry Ryan, who works in the organization as an advisor to Dave Dombrowski, gave the go-ahead for the position switch after watching Kepler handle innings in left field well years ago in the minor leagues.
Kepler has ranked toward the top of the majors in fielding run value among right fielders for most of his MLB career.
The Phillies plan to use him as an everyday player, although he’ll enter spring training at age 32 without ever filling that kind of role for an entire season.
Plate Discipline
Dombrowski entered the offseason looking to add a different type of approach to Philadelphia’s lineup. Their free swingers and pull-happy hitters have developed into a volatile boom or bust batting order.
“It just doesn’t seem to work. I remember being around some Phillies people maybe August of this past year, early September. I said ‘What do you think of your chances (to win the World Series)?’ They said, ‘We don’t think we have good chances because we’re way too easy to pitch to.’ So I think that’s where they have to shake (up) that lineup so the opposing pitchers don’t settle in. They’ve been dominated two straight postseasons now.” –Bob Nightengale on 97.5 The Fanatic
Max Kepler ranked in the 34th percentile of qualified MLB hitters chasing 30.5% of the pitches he saw outside the unofficial strike zone in 2024. The Phillies finished 25th in the majors with a 30.3% chase rate.
His career numbers paint a different picture. Kepler finished in the top quarter in chase rate the previous three seasons, even finishing at a steady 20.4% in 121 games in 2021.
His whiff rate and walk percentage have similarly swung with high variance in recent seasons.
The Phillies are betting on one season that aligns with his better career rates in plate discipline similarly to the gamble they’re taking with his overall offensive production.
Dombrowski and Rob Thomson emphasized the need to look beyond chase rate as the root of their club’s plate discipline issues. The Phillies will encourage hitters to use the entire field more effectively in 2025.
“I think you just have to get them to slow the game down at times and stay in that approach (using the whole field and) be cognizant that the pitchers are going to try and get you to chase because that’s what the numbers say. If you stay with that approach, I think you cut down on chase. I think you get more base hits.” -Rob Thomson
Kepler’s approach doesn’t align with the concept. Every one of his home runs last season and a great majority of his extra-base hits came on the pull.
He hit only two home runs to the opposite field in each of his two best MLB seasons in 2019 and 2023.
The 6-foot-4 outfielder has exceeded the 37.2% average pull rate in every one of his nine full seasons as a major leaguer. His offensive surge in 2019 came during his most pull-happy season with a 50.8% rate.
Fit With The Phillies
Kepler and Jordan Romano both signed one-year deals for the 2025 season. Dombrowski spoke about the contracts as a way for the two players to bet on themselves after down seasons to drive up their value before reentering free agency next winter.
“Actually, both of them preferred those deals because they feel that they can go back out and show that they can have good quality years and hopefully get long-term contracts at big numbers from other places. Maybe it’s with us, who knows?” -Dave Dombrowski
The Phillies went down with a whimper in the National League Division Series. The front office didn’t inspire much optimism while other major market teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees made expensive, high-profile additions.
How can the Phillies keep pace with other World Series contenders that improved their rosters more drastically during the MLB offseason arms race? One-year gambles like Max Kepler can outperform their expectations and prove themselves as major contributors and free agent bargains.
All advanced numbers according of StatCast (unless otherwise noted)
