The Early Surprise of the Phillies’ Starting Rotation
The Philadelphia Phillies signed Taijuan Walker to a four-year, $72 million deal before the 2023 season. A 10-year veteran with 160 MLB starts and a sub-4.00 ERA commanded an expensive contract, but just over a season later, Walker’s shoulder injury has paved the way for Spencer Turnbull at the back of Philadelphia’s starting rotation.
Spencer Turnbull
The Phillies emphasized starting pitching depth in their public messaging throughout a relatively quiet offseason. Rob Thomson even estimated that the Phillies could use up to 10 starters before the regular season ends.
When they signed Spencer Turnbull just before spring training, most fans seemed to wonder the same question:
Is that the guy who threw a no-hitter for the Tigers three years ago?
Injuries plagued Turnbull after his gem with Detroit in May 2021. However, a one-year deal worth $2 million provided a solid match for an organization looking for a cheap depth option and a player looking for an opportunity to regain his rhythm.
Two trips through the rotation have passed. Turnbull has pitched 11 innings without allowing an earned run.
Spencer Turnbull after two trips through the rotation:
— Colin Newby (@ToNewbyginnings) April 9, 2024
4/2 vs. Reds: 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 7 K
4/8 vs. Cardinals: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 6 K
Surprising Gem in Baseball Heaven
The Phillies lost their first two series of the season despite a relatively strong collective performance from their starting staff. Turnbull then got them off to a fast start in their three-game set at Busch Stadium against the St. Louis Cardinals.
He limited the Red Birds to three hits over six shutout innings. The 31-year-old worked efficiently with his pitches and benefitted from effective use his offspeed arsenal (the pitches that Ricky Bottalico hates calling sweepers).
Turnbull fanned St. Louis star Nolan Arenado in a 2-0 game in the sixth inning for his final out of the evening. The bullpen didn’t have their strongest night, which cost Turnbull a chance for his second victory. The Phillies still pulled off a 5-3 win in 10 innings.
Taijuan Walker
The injury to Walker plays an important part in Turnbull’s future. Walker has resumed throwing. Rob Thomson estimated that the AAA rehab stint would extend about 30 days. The window means an MLB return close to May 11. It would likely give Turbull five more starts in the meantime.
Walker began the first season of his lucrative contract with high expectations. He faded out of favor by the time the 2023 MLB Playoffs came around.
His experience and an overall serviceable stat line with a 4.38 ERA in 31 starts in 2023 certainly warrant some optimism about the remainder of his contract. The Phillies also publicly downplayed his decision to voice his social media displeasure about a lack of playoff innings. However, he has a lot to prove once he returns to the majors. Jayson Stark has already taken notice of a possible question the Phillies might face.
“I don’t know what happens if he’s (Turnbull is) really good for a month or five weeks, and here comes Taijuan Walker. You have to put Taijuan back in the rotation (because you’re) paying him $18 million a year. It’s a storyline to keep an eye on.” –Jayson Stark
Once Walker completes his rehab, the Phillies would theoretically insert him into the rotation to replace the right-handed Turnbull at the back end. Things don’t always go according to plan in MLB starting rotations.
Dave Dombrowski identified the need for starting depth before spring training. His low-risk move to acquire Turnbull and the righty’s early-season performance has immediately validated the priority.
The Phillies hope a healthy Taijuan Walker picks up steam quickly. They also want a loaded starting staff with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top to remain intact, but they brought in Turnbull with proper expectations of the modern nature of MLB rotations and the need for spot starters over 162 games.
If Turnbull continues to turn heads, he’ll earn the opportunity to stick long-term with the Phillies.
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Philadelphia Phillies 26-Man Roster For Opening Day
Bryce Harper
The biggest superstar in the major leagues will stay in the spotlight for the duration of his contract with the Phillies. His memorable home runs have captured the hearts of Philadelphia fans, and his newest challenge is a permanent position change to first base.
Expect Harper to exceed his previous two seasons numbers if he can stay healthy for 162 games.
Bryson Stott
The Phillies benefitted from Bryson Stott’s breakout season at second base in 2023. The blossoming star showed off an excellent glove. He excelled offensively for most of the year, but he hopes to recover from a late-season slump.
Stott is approaching status as a fan favorite after his dramatic grand slam to open the flood gates in the NL Wild Card Series at Citizens Bank Park.
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm improved as a third baseman in 2023 and added a little more power from the right side of the plate. He continued his smooth hitting approach. Fans enjoy his ability to hit to all fields and his consistency.
Bohm won’t hit in the cleanup spot much in 2024 like he did during critical moments last season. He is, however, a good option toward the bottom of one of the deepest MLB lineups.
Trea Turner
The famous standing ovation seemed to change the momentum of Trea Turner’s first season in Philadelphia. The expected superstar struggled through the first four months of 2023.
However, if Turner can progress back to his career averages, the Phillies gain a much better bat that they didn’t see during a slow start in 2023. The Phillies didn’t make many offseason upgrades, but they’re counting on improvement from Turner as a key difference in 2024.
Edmundo Sosa
The Phillies will ask Edmundo Sosa to be their primary reserve infielder. The veteran utility man proved himself as a good addition before the run to the World Series in 2022. He’ll look to provide versatility off the bench in 2024.
Brandon Marsh
Underwhelming performances against left-handed pitching pushed Rob Thomson to limit Brandon Marsh’s role the past two seasons. The 26-year-old improved his power numbers last season though.
Marsh still offers a good glove in left field or center field. He’ll look to play an everyday role in 2024.
Johan Rojas
Johan Rojas became one of the biggest storylines of an otherwise uneventful spring training. The young center fielder ultimately earned a roster spot for Opening Day.
His excellent glove forced Thomson’s hand despite underwhelming offensive numbers. Rojas could split time with other outfielders if Cristian Pache or Whit Merrifield play their way into more at-bats.
Nick Castellanos
After a down season in 2022, Nick Castellanos provided one of the best bats in the middle of the order for long stretches of 2023. He ripped the cover off the ball early in the postseason, but he fell off a cliff with struggles in the NLCS.
The Phillies will count on his right-handed bat behind lefties Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Castellanos still has two years remaining on the high-priced contract he signed with Philadelphia before the 2022 season.
Whit Merrifield
The addition of Whit Merrifield made perfect sense for the Phillies. The accomplished veteran brings positional versatility to the bench. He’ll provide insurance if Rojas or other regulars don’t improve offensively.
Merrifield could step in for more at-bats if the Phillies suffer from the injury bug at some points this season.
Cristian Pache
The raw potential of Cristian Pache won’t carry him much further. The 25-year-old brings a good glove and speed on the basepaths. However, he must improve offensively to justify a full-time MLB roster spot.
Pache earned himself a spot on the Opening Day roster. He is out of minor league options, and his future depends on his performance early in the season.
Kyle Schwarber (DH)
The most polarizing Phillies hitter will most likely hit in the leadoff spot to begin the season. Kyle Schwarber struggled as a full-time left fielder last season, but the lineup flexibility with a healthy Bryce Harper should keep Schwarber in the designated hitter spot.
Schwarber has led the Phillies in home runs in his only two seasons with the club, and he’s doubled the number of any of his teammates.
J.T. Realmuto
The 33-year-old catcher is staring Father Time in the face. J.T. Realmuto built a reputation as the best catcher in baseball throughout a long and successful career. He posted excellent numbers in 2022, but he dipped offensively and defensively in 2023.
Realmuto still provides excellent value behind the plate. He’ll look to silence the critics with a season that proves he’s got plenty left in the tank.
Garrett Stubbs
The city of Philadelphia has fallen in love with the current group of Phillies. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs doesn’t play a major role on the diamond, but he can’t seem to stay out of the spotlight in celebrations.
Stubbs hasn’t provided much offensively behind Realmuto. He’ll look for a better statistical season to justify his roster spot.
Zack Wheeler
Dave Dombrowski announced his confidence in Zack Wheeler with a lucrative extension during spring training. The staff ace has dominated in postseason starts (and one relief appearance) for the Phillies.
He will debut a splitter on Opening Day, and he hopes to reenter the conversation as a candidate for the National League Cy Young.
Aaron Nola
The Aaron Nola debate raged after the stunning playoff exit. Would the Phillies sign their homegrown free agent pitcher after a down season?
The organization locked up Nola on a long-term deal with the hope that he’ll rebound. The veteran righty will need to limit his tendency to allow a devastating long ball or a poorly-timed big inning.
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez looks as composed as any big league pitcher on the mound. The 28-year-old Venezuelan hopes to pitch a full season in the starting rotation for the first time in 2024.
His postseason numbers have been incredible, and the Phillies will see if their underrated third starter continues an excellent stretch in the majors.
Cristopher Sanchez
Dombrowski didn’t add a big name starting pitcher during the offseason. A major part of his logic was confidence in Cristopher Sanchez.
The breakout lefty became one of Philadelphia’s best starting pitchers down the stretch of the regular season in 2023. He’ll begin the season in the full-time rotation.
Spencer Turnbull
Taijuan Walker will begin the season on the injured list. The vacancy at the bottom of the rotation opens a spot for Spencer Turnbull.
The Phillies picked up Turnbull on a low-risk deal. He threw a no-hitter with the Tigers in 2021, and he’ll look for a strong start to the season to convince Rob Thomson that he deserves a longer look after Walker returns.
Jose Alvarado
The acquisition of Jose Alvarado from the Tampa Bay Rays turned out to be a steal. The powerful lefty has developed a devastating sinking fastball that reaches 100 miles per hour on the gun.
He is the best option for Thomson out of the bullpen in high-leverage situations. While the Phillies won’t use a traditional closer, Alvarado could end up with the most saves on the team.
Seranthony Dominguez
Seranthony Dominguez returned from injury with a vengeance in 2022. He proved himself as one of the best options in a strong bullpen by the time the Phillies reached the postseason.
The Dominican fireballer took a step back in 2023, which tends to happen to bullpen pitchers. He lost his spot as the primary right-handed reliever to Jeff Hoffman when the Phillies reached the postseason. He has the tools to recover. Look for a big season from Dominguez in 2024.
Gregory Soto
Midseason injuries to Alvarado and Dominguez forced Gregory Soto into a bigger role. The powerful lefty wore down late last season.
A more fitting role in 2024 could help to unlock an incredible bullpen arm. He earned two All-Star appearances with the Tigers before coming to Philadelphia last offseason. The Phillies expect that talent to reemerge.
Jeff Hoffman
Jeff Hoffman outperformed his career averages in most statistical categories last season. He worked his way into a trusted relief role at playoff time.
His mission in 2024 is to prove that last season was no fluke. He is a middle relief option in one of the league’s strongest bullpens.
Matt Strahm
The Phillies handed a nice payday to Matt Strahm before the season. The swingman developed into a strong left-handed option in 2023. He showed his ability as an impactful weapon who can pitch multiple innings. He’ll play an important role as middle reliever this season.
Yunior Marte
Yunior Marte struggled in his first two major league outings last season. His statistics skewed based on the sample size. However, he showed enough flashes of dominant stuff to stay with the Phillies for 40 relief appearances.
Orion Kerkering won’t begin the season on the active roster. Could the opportunity turn into Marte’s big break with the Phillies?
Connor Brogdon
It wasn’t that long ago that Connor Brogdon drew comparisons to long-armed righty Ryan Madson. A midseason slump in 2023 resulted in a ride up to Lehigh Valley for the remainder of the season.
His early-season performance will determine the future for a pitcher out of minor league options.
Luis Ortiz
The Phillies probably didn’t expect Luis Ortiz to make the 26-man roster when spring training began. The 28-year-old benefits from the roster shuffle, however.
He pitched 14 games for the Phillies last season. He’ll have to convince the front office he deserves to stick at the MLB level.
