What Dave Dombrowski thinks standings projections are missing with Phillies
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Finishing third in the NL East didn’t turn out so bad for the Phillies in 2022, but it’s certainly not the internal expectation this year.
Not after making a run to the World Series, spending $300 million on Trea Turner and adding Taijuan Walker, Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm and depth pieces.
Yet third place is where the two main projection systems have the Phillies finishing. Fangraphs’ projection system (ZiPS) has the Mets and Braves winning 94 games and the Phillies winning 85. Baseball Prospectus’ system (PECOTA) has the Mets winning 96, the Braves winning 91 and the Phils winning 90.
“I’m a little curious,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said this week. “I don’t know that anyone predicted us to play in the World Series last year. I think there’s a couple things you have to remember when they do the predictive natures. I was talking with John Middleton about this. First of all, there’s the variable of Bryce Harper’s situation. I saw our lineup projected as 8th-ranked in Major League Baseball, but they said if Bryce Harper comes back, they could be number one. That’s one thing.
“Secondly, which surprises me, is they say we only won 87 games last year. I hear this repeatedly and I get it, but if you look at the record when Rob Thomson took over, when we were 22-29, that record correlates to being much better than an 87-win team.”
Obviously, the earlier Harper returns from Tommy John surgery, the better the Phillies’ chances. He is expected to miss the majority of the first half, but there has been optimism that he could return shortly before the All-Star break. Harper is progressing well and has reached the practice-swinging portion of his rehab. There are still many steps and hurdles to clear, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Wednesday that Harper is “a little bit ahead of schedule,” before being sure to knock on wood.
The Phillies went 65-46 after Thomson took over. That’s a 95-win pace over a full season. If you include the playoffs, they went 76-52 under Thomson, a 97-win pace.
But Harper and the record with Thomson aren’t the only factors in Dombrowski’s skepticism.
“The other thing that’s always interesting, when I see those predictive natures, one thing they don’t do is they don’t take into account player improvement,” he said. “I think we have three young players on our club that play basically every day that can make the difference of us being an 87-win club and a much better club: Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh. Those three have a chance to continue to improve.
“In addition to that, Nick Castellanos did not have a good year. I think he will bounce back and have a good season. And they also don’t include somebody like an Andrew Painter being part of your club.”
Painter certainly has much more upside than most pitchers battling for the final spot in their team’s rotation. It doesn’t mean he’ll definitely win the job this spring or instantly perform like a top-of-the-rotation arm, but rookie starting pitchers can make a major difference. Spencer Strider was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball last season. George Kirby pitched to a 3.39 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning in 25 starts with the Mariners. They probably wouldn’t have ended their playoff drought without him.
“We probably have more variables than some other clubs may, when you look at the Braves or the Mets,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t know how many question marks with young players that they have, they’re pretty well solidified. Maybe the Braves at shortstop with Vaughn Grissom and maybe their fifth starter’s spot. But I think in our situation, people don’t really know how to — I understand because I deal with the analytical projections all the time — they have a hard time with those youngsters and predicting they’ll be better.”
For what it’s worth, PECOTA accurately projected eight of 12 the playoff teams last year, missing on the Brewers, Angels, Red Sox and White Sox.
ZiPS was within three wins of its projections for six teams. Eleven teams won or lost at least 10 more games than their projection.
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