Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Jurickson Profar

Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies finished the MLB Winter Meetings without a splashy move. They don’t appear likely to shop for a top-tier remaining free agent like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, or Teoscar Hernandez. A trade involving the organization's top prospects also looks less likely with Garrett Crochet off the board. Given their reported goal of changing the complexion of their lineup, would the Phillies consider signing Jurickson Profar to play left field? Jurickson Profar Profar’s unusual career arc took a wild turn for the San Diego Padres in 2024. The former MLB top prospect set career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, RBI, and walks at age 31. He earned his first trip to the MLB All-Star Game and his first Silver Slugger Award. Jurickson ProfarBatting AverageOn-Base PercentageSlugging PercentageHome Runs (per 162 games)OPS+WAR(per 162 games) 2018-2023.241.325.39716971.02024.280.380.459241373.6WAR according to Baseball Reference The Curacao native has peculiarly alternated his production in recent seasons. He posted an OPS+ under 100, the league average, in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. His OPS+ in drastically improved in even numbered years in 2018, 2020, and 2022 before the career season in 2024.  Profar wouldn’t bring the strongest glove to the outfield at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have proven, however, that they’re willing to manage with corner outfielders in the lineup for their offense with a stronger center fielder in between them. Related Content: Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Teoscar Hernandez He matched his career high with 10 stolen bases last season, but his sprint speed ranked in the league’s 26th percentile. Similar to Santander’s situation, a career season entering free agency will drive up his price tag. FanGraphs estimates that Profar will sign a three-year contract worth $45 million ($15 million average annual value). Will the Phillies and other interested ball clubs count on Profar to match his 2024 performance, or will they anticipate regression back toward his career averages from his previous 10 MLB seasons? Plate Discipline Dombrowski entered the offseason looking to add a different type of approach to Philadelphia's lineup. “It just doesn’t seem to work. I remember being around some Phillies people maybe August of this past year, early September. I said ‘What do you think of your chances (to win the World Series)?’ They said, ‘We don’t think we have good chances because we’re way too easy to pitch to.’ So I think that’s where they have to shake (up) that lineup so the opposing pitchers don’t settle in. They’ve been dominated two straight postseasons now.” -Bob Nightengale on 97.5 The Fanatic Jurickson Profar finished tied for 11th in the majors with 76 walks last season. He brings a different style than some of the free swingers that define the Phillies and modern baseball overall. He improved his swing selection significantly in 2021, and he’s continued the rise over the last four seasons. Jurickson Profar2021202220232024Chase Rate22.5% (85th)23.7% (79th)25.1% (74th)21.9 % (90th)Whiff Rate17.9% (87th)18.8% (86th)20% (79th)17% (90th)Strikeout Rate15.8% (82nd)15.7% (84th)17.3% (80th)15.1 % (88th)Walk Rate11.9% (86th)11.1% (85th)9.6% (64th)11.4% (89th)Percentile rank among qualified MLB hitters in parentheses The improved numbers coincide with better career stability as a veteran big leaguer and more playing time. Profar also provides the natural advantage as a switch hitter that’s become less common in recent seasons. Dombrowski and Rob Thomson spoke after the season with an emphasis on the need for Phillies hitters to avoid swinging too aggressively to pull instead of using the whole field. Profar pulled the ball 40.2% of the time in 2024, which is above the league average. He also narrowly exceeded the average rate of balls sent to the opposite field. Fit With Phillies The Phillies haven’t kept up with the arms race between major market contenders during the MLB offseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs have stacked the National League while the current core of Phillies nears the end of their prime seasons. The organization might publicly downplay the need to make additions, but urgency spurs action in a major market like Philadelphia with an executive like Dombrowski calling the shots and a hungry owner like John Middleton willing to open his checkbook. The Phillies would have to gamble on Profar producing closer to his career highs from 2024 if they commit roughly $45 million in guaranteed money to a player who will turn 32 this winter. It’s no small issue, but even if he regresses in some major offensive categories, his consistent plate discipline numbers are still a safer bet to bring a different dimension to a lineup that’s become predictable.  Profar won’t come on a cheap deal, but a hypothetical signing wouldn’t break the bank entirely or necessarily force the Phillies to enter the 2025 season paying lucrative luxury tax penalties. It also wouldn’t force them to part with top prospects like some of the major offseason trades they’ve considered.  If the Phillies don’t plan on shopping at the top of the free agent market, Dombrowski should strongly consider chasing Jurickson Profar as his ticket to altering the lineup. All advanced numbers according of StatCast (unless otherwise noted)