What Should Phillies Fans Expect From Andrew Painter in 2025?
Dave Dombrowski explored the market for blockbuster deals ahead of the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline and during the MLB offseason. He balked, however, when the name Andrew Painter came up in negotiations.
Matt Gelb spoke with Kevin Cooney on 97.5 The Fanatic about the top minor league pitching prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies system. Gelb cited conversations with talent evaluators from other MLB teams who have effusively praised Painter.
“This guy is as good of a pitching prospect as I think they’ve (the Phillies have) ever had.” –Matt Gelb on 97.5 The Fanatic
Andrew Painter
The Phillies selected Painter with the 13th-overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. He was the second of five consecutive high school players taken with their top draft choice from 2020-2024.
The 6-foot-7 fireballer broke out in the minor leagues in 2022 to win the MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year.
An elbow injury and ensuing Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound for the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons.
Painter posted a stellar 1.48 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in 109 ⅔ innings in the minors before the surgery.
He returned to game action in October with the Glendale Desert Dogs and earned the Arizona Fall League’s pitcher of the year award after dominating with 18 strikeouts in 15 ⅔ innings.
Painter had touched 100 miles per hour with his fastball before the surgery, and he showed promising health hitting the high 90s consistently in Arizona.
MLB.com ranks him 32nd on their list of top minor league prospects because of his “combination of stuff, size, and feel for pitching.” Scouts have identified his deep four-pitch arsenal with an effective slider, curveball, and changeup to complement the high velocity.
The South Florida native already has a friend from close to home on the Phillies staff. Newly-acquired lefty Jesus Luzardo talked about his relationship with Painter as part of “a tight-knit baseball brotherhood” between players who grew up in the region.
Phillies Planning For 2025
The organization plans to handle a top prospect coming off major surgery with caution. They’ve included Painter as a non-roster invitee in spring training. Dombrowski expects that Painter will throw off a mound but not in game action only about four months after the Arizona Fall League.
The early months of the regular season in the minor leagues could become his effectual spring training as he ramps up for the big league level.
The Phillies hope he’ll make his major league debut at some point during the summer, although they won’t definitively commit to a time frame.
“I don’t think it’s going to change. I think Andrew understands the plan. We think it’s a good plan. He’ll build up at some point to the minors. He’ll have to build up (with) some extended program, some in the minors, but we’re going to save a lot of his innings until we get to July-ish for the big league level… You can’t use too many of them (limited innings) at the minor league level at that point too.” -Dave Dombrowski
Dombrowski mentioned in his end-of-season availability in October that he had an eye on the success of Paul Skenes with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024.
Skenes made seven starts in Triple A with minimal length to begin the regular season. He hit the ground running after his MLB debut on May 11 to win the National League Rookie of the Year and finish third in Cy Young voting. The rookie phenom wasn’t coming off Tommy John surgery, however.
What Should Phillies Fans Expect From Andrew Painter?
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez return to a starting staff that finished tied for seventh in the majors with a 3.81 ERA despite the statistical inflation of a rough performance from Taijuan Walker and other fifth starters behind them.
Luzardo rounds out the projected rotation that should be among the best in the majors. So, where does Andrew Painter fit in?
MLB rotations have evolved dramatically in recent seasons to reaffirm the tired cliche that clubs can never have enough pitching.
The Los Angeles Dodgers pieced together a pitching staff with bullpen games and starters returning from long-term injuries on their way to a World Series last season. The Phillies effectively rested their top starters late in the 2022 and 2023 seasons with temporary six-man rotations and cautious IL stints to gear up for the MLB Postseason.
Additional factors with Luzardo and Suarez coming off injuries and Wheeler and Nola piling up career innings pitched creates the need for pitching depth.
If Painter progresses in the minors according to the predetermined plan, finding a spot in the MLB rotation will be among the least of Rob Thomson’s midsummer worries.
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The state of the starting rotation also creates an uncertain future for Suarez. The cool, collected fan favorite is unlikely to sign a long-term deal to stay in Philadelphia past 2025.
(Expected) playoff contenders don’t typically trade starting pitchers in their prime during the regular season. However, Dombrowski showed his willingness to subtract from the MLB roster by moving Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline last season.
The odds that Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Suarez, and Luzardo block Andrew Painter from a spot in the MLB rotation despite all the fluid circumstances simply aren’t high.
If Painter successfully follows the development plan the Phillies have set, he’ll have the opportunity to pitch for a team with its sights on the World Series.
