UFC Vegas 20 Betting Guide
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex with UFC Vegas 20. A card headlined by Cyril Gane vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Its a 9 fight card tonight after Hill vs. Yoder was postponed due to COVID protocols.
Here are some specifics. The prelims kick off at 6pm. With the main card starting at 8pm. Everything can be seen on ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan100 and bet $1 on Canelo Alvarez to beat Avni Yildirim and if you win your wager you’ll win $100 in free bets!
43-26 so far this year ( 14-9 on locks)
(9-3 last fight card. 1-2 on locks)
Maxim Grishin +150
Ronnie Lawrence -165
Sabina Mazo -225
Alexander Hernandez -250 (lock)
MAIN EVENT TIME
Kevin Croom vs. Alex Caceres
I couldnt hate this fight any more. I just dont enjoy watching Alex Caceres fight. I never have. This is a tale of two vets duking it out with Caceres having faced far tougher competition. Croom made quick work of Roosevelt Roberts in his UFC debut. Snatching Roberts neck for a surprise standing guillotine which cost me, and many others, money (Croom was a +435 underdog.) I dont think either of these guys are that good. Caceres however is riding a 3 fight winning streak. A winning streak that I do see coming to an end. I think Croom is going to come out and rag doll Caceres. Trying to prove that his last win wasnt a fluke.
Kevin Croom +155
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
Now this is a fight that I am looking forward to! Two bantamweights who have been on the cusp of a title shot until they run into a contender who snatches their opportunity. Whether its Petr Yan, or Aljo (whom theve both faced.) But the level of competition that Rivera has lost to in this recent skid (2-3 in his last 5 fights) is nothing but killers. Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling, and Marlon Moraes. Thats the champion, the guy the champion is facing in his next fight, and a guy who lost to Henry Cejudo in a title fight.
Its not like Pedro Munhoz has lost to heavy bags, but I think Rivera is still on an elite level that could still contend for a championship. I dont think Pedro Munhoz has that ability. I like Rivera in a convincing victory.
Jimmy Rivera -150 (lock)
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Montana De La Rosa is a very good grappler. Shes a beast on the ground. Silva is just much much better. De La Rosa’s best bet is to hope this turns into a stand up fight. I dont see that happening. But maybe De La Rosa can stuff some take downs and establish a jab and piece Silva up on the feet….I mean sure! Anything is possible. I think the more likely scenerio is Silva establishes herself in the clinch, eventually gets De La Rosa down, and submits her.
Mayra Bueno Silva -140 (lock)
Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev has dominated every fight hes been in. Even in his lone loss to Paul Craig, he was dominating the fight until he got careless and Craig threw up a triangle choke. Ankalaev was literally one second away from a win. If he was able to hold off Craig he would be entering this fight undefeated.
Krylov is a solid vet who recently has some impressive wins against OSP and Johnny Walker. The loss to now champion Jan Blachowicz looks better now than it did when the fight happened in 2018. Im trying to be kind here, but Ankalaev by finish.
Magomed Ankalaev -350 (lock)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane
Ive never been enamored with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Hes got power, and could end my life with a jab. But every time hes fighting a LEGIT contender, hes struggled. Ignore him fighting the aging Andre Arlovski. Sure, on paper it says he beat Alistair Overeem, but he was 4 seconds away from a unanimous 50-45 decision loss. Credit to him for splitting Overeem’s face wide open, but you could make the case that it was a quick stoppage, because of the fact that the fight was 4 seconds away from ending.
He then ASKED for Francis N’Gannou….He asked for that.
It didnt. N’Gannou obliterated Rozenstruik. This matchup is more Rozenstruik’s speed. We will find out a lot about the heavyweight in this fight. Its either going to be a fight where he can reestablish that hes not a one trick pony who was beating up on non-contenders, or its going to be a true wake up call that he has a long way to go. I think more likely its the later.
Cyril Gane doesnt have the experience that Rozenstruik does, but hes taken care of legends (JDS), and prospects (Tanner Boser.) Hes also shown an ability to beat his opponents in different areas. A heavy weight pulling off a heel hook is impressive. Its something you rarely see. Hes also pulled off a triangle choke, and then a good ol fashion ground and pound. He, unlike Rozenstruik, has shown that he isnt a one trick pony. His athleticism I think will rule out.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, I do think the fact that hes a -250 favorite is a bit much. I think Gane wins, but that number should be closer to Gane -175. The fact that Rozenstruik is a +200 under dog shows me that theres incredible value on Rozenstruik. So I would say if you have some extra money, throw it on Rozenstruik, because in the heavy weight division you just never know. I wouldnt bet Gane unless its in a parlay. Theres not a ton of value with him at -250. But including him in a parlay will give you good value to hedge with if he is the final piece to you walking away with some cash. But I do think he wins.
Cyril Gane -250
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $10,648 (+10548)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $811 (+711)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,311 (+1211)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $514 (+414) But UFC fighters have a had a key all year long to my “locks” because they havent been that good…
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
