The 2024 Phillies Went From Being Standouts To Just One Of The Crowd

Just a prelude here, if this hurts your feelings get over it. You’re not a better fan or analyst because you repeat the party line.

The 2024 Phillies were like hearing my friends talk about Game of Thrones. They crashed onto the scene as the most exciting product out there. At some point, they lost their way. Dynamic domination of opponents brought on complacency. Maybe they got off to such a hot start that they realized in June they could play .500 ball and still grab that post season berth.

They would not be the first team to start hot, cool off for a long period of time and then regroup in time to grab a championship. Will this be their fate? Conflicting opinions can create solid arguments either way.

That’s way too long to play mediocre baseball. I’d use injuries as an excuse, but there are so many other National League contenders that would make a stronger case. If anyone had told me on July 1st that the Phillies would finish within just a couple games of almost every other contender in both leagues, I’d have laughed them out of the studio. Unfortunately, the joke is on me. Playing with no sense of urgency, striking out way too much and getting blown out routinely is the storyline of the past three months.

In fact, they all were! The Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks have ALL played better. Does this mean anything to you? If it doesn’t then I believe you are just spinning things as a homer. It’s been three months and that is hardly a small sample size. Does it preclude you from having a chance to win in October? No! Is it a fact that needs to at least be considered as very worrisome? Oh yeah.

I wanted to leave you with a very positive message. In the past week I’ve conversed with some front office executives, major league players and broadcasters with no affiliation to the Phillies. Now this was a random sample and it accounts for just five opinions, but it was unanimous that the Phillies were the favorites to win the World Series by all of them.

I offered my thoughts on how frustrating the last three months have been after their torrid start. It was best presented to me in this statement; “no team is better prepared to go 11-8 than the Phillies”.

I was told that my expectations were too high and that I shouldn’t have as many doubts. It doesn’t take you winning 11 in a row, just 11 of 19 potential games. They told me when you have five solid bullpen arms to step in after their top three starters it is a recipe for success.

The crowd at Citizens Bank Park cheered a Philadelphia Phillies victory in the final home game of the regular season. Minutes later, they found even more reason for optimism when the big screen in right field showed the final out of a Milwaukee Brewers loss.

The Phillies have clinched the first-round bye. They'll await a wild card opponent with home field advantage in the National League Division Series beginning on Saturday, October 5.

Rob Thomson has plenty of decisions to make in the next week, especially involving Cristopher Sanchez and Aaron Nola. Phillies fans will particularly wonder which starter will take the mound for Game 2 of the playoff series.

All stats as of the beginning of play on September 26

A bye through the NL Wild Card Round allows the Phillies to align their postseason starting rotation however they’d like.

Zack Wheeler will take the mound in Game 1. Aaron Nola has followed him up consistently in two consecutive playoff runs. However, would Rob Thomson rearrange his rotation to use Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park?

Sanchez logged a 2.21 ERA in 17 home starts and a 5.02 ERA in 14 road starts. He fared better statistically at home in WHIP, strikeouts, and innings pitched.

Thomson takes pride in his own tendency to send messages of confidence to his players by sticking with strategies that have worked in the past and dispelling outside chatter.

He’ll pay close attention to the silent message his decision sends to a clubhouse he’s carefully managed through one one of the best three-year spans in franchise history.

When the Phillies clinched the NL East on Monday, Aaron Nola grabbed the victory and improved his sparkling statistics with a 1.62 ERA and a 6.57 strikeout/walk ratio in seven starts with the opportunity to clinch a division title, playoff spot, or playoff series since 2022.

The homegrown Phillies righty also has a better ERA, WHIP, and strikeout/walk ratio, more innings per start and strikeouts per nine, and a lower opponent batting average in home starts this season.

Sanchez was also significantly better with a 2.08 ERA in six road starts in 2023 than he was with a 3.93 ERA in 13 home starts.

Thomson is well aware of the drastic splits, and the media will continue to pepper him with questions about his upcoming decision.

However, he’s much more aware of how reliable Aaron Nola has been for him during his first three seasons as an MLB manager.

Clinching the National League East and the first-round bye doesn’t mean the remainder of the regular season has no consequence. The Phillies still have incentives to earn the best record in baseball to secure home field advantage throughout Red October, but at what cost?

Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola will start the final three regular season games against the Washington Nationals, respectively. It’s possible that minimally shorter outings will serve them better before entering Red October as key pieces to a potential World Series run.

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the last-place Colorado Rockies this weekend. The Phillies own the tiebreaker over the assumed NL West champions.

The New York Yankees also have a good chance to finish with the best MLB record to steal home field advantage in a potential World Series. They own the tiebreaker over the Phillies.

The Phillies will naturally emphasize the Red October home field advantage as a priority, but the praise of their own fan base doesn’t necessarily indicate a top priority and a mindset that home field advantage will play a determining factor in playoff games.

Thomson has also made recent managerial decisions with an apparent eye on some situational tests for the postseason rather than a singular concentration on winning to earn the top seed.

Expect to see Thomson prioritize setting his players up best for the postseason this weekend in Washington with a secondary goal of finishing with the best record in baseball.

A kidney infection had sidelined Austin Hays for over three weeks, but the trade deadline acquisition returned on Tuesday. 

Hays hit .254 with a .649 OPS in 19 games before his IL stint began the first week of September. His 29.4% hard hit rate in the short run with the Phillies fell way short of his numbers at the peak of his performance with the Baltimore Orioles.

Dave Dombrowski landed Hays for a package that included Seranthony Dominguez to bolster the outfield offense. While the Phillies didn’t see a significant boost instantly, Hays has the opportunity to improve his conditioning through the remainder of the regular season and reach a better offensive rhythm.

Will he start in left field during the MLB Playoffs?

Rob Thomson has some decisions to make. He must balance the best defensive alignment with the highest offensive upside and consider handedness based on pitching matchups.

Lefty Brandon Marsh sits in the third percentile of MLB players in strikeout rate. He’s probably not suited well to start in center field against a left-handed starting pitcher in a lineup that needs better contact. 

Righty Johan Rojas brings a good glove to center field and speed on the basepaths. Thomson might ask him to play a role as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, and the Phillies skipper could also elect for better starting defense and sit Marsh in favor of Rojas.

Both outfielders will earn some favor with their manager if they’re able to handle situational baseball that enables the lineup’s top sluggers to carry the Phillies during the postseason.

Hays, Marsh, and Rojas have all shown varying levels of offensive deficiency in 2024. Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens have brought some pop to the lineup in spot starts this season. Any playoff slump could easily force Thomson’s hand to start one of the two reserves.

The Phillies will likely use different combinations in left field and center field in their starting lineups. Also expect Thomson to utilize bench players, especially in the later innings, if he feels a move can showcase one player’s particular skill.

Earlier this season, he openly questioned his own decision not to pinch hit for Rojas in Game 7 of the NLCS in 2023. Don’t expect him to waive a similar opportunity in 2024.