Reminder, The Baseball Season Is A Marathon, Not A Sprint
Thursday is my favorite day of the year, Opening Day in baseball and the beginning of another season of the Phillies. Everything that goes into Opening Day makes it special, especially in Philadelphia. The paint on the field, the players walking down the steps from Ashburn Alley, the introductions of the full team up the foul line. The pomp and circumstance surrounding the start of a new baseball season adds to the game itself.
Not only is the start of a baseball season fun, it is also the beginning of a marathon. I am writing this as a reminder for you that the season will not be won or lost in March and April. As we have seen the last two seasons for the Phillies, it isn’t even won in the month of May. The MLB regular season is a LONG 162-game stretch. You never sprint in a marathon.
The reason why I am writing this is because a lot of you OVERREACT far too often during a baseball season. I, like you, would rather the Phillies win the division and not rely on the Wild Card. But even with that preference, even with the high expectations of reaching and winning a World Series, you will go crazy if you react to each Phillies game like an Eagles game.
Here is my suggestion to you. It is a rule that I have followed over the years. Try to react to the Phillies with 10-game increments or after 3 straight series. There will be moments in games that will lead to discourse, we will complain about moves made by Rob Thomson or an error by somebody in the field, but don’t go too far by saying “this is why they won’t win the World Series this year!” I heard stuff like that in APRIL of last season.
My biggest concern for a lot of you is that your expectations are so high that it will limit your enjoyment of the season. Try your best to kick back, crack open a beer, and just enjoy your Summer nights with the Fightins’. (Just ignore that I wrote this when I complain about a certain center fielder batting below .200 2 months into the season).
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Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Season Preview: Outfielders
Nick Castellanos
Aaron Nola has an inexplicably high variance on the starting staff. Nick Castellanos brings it to the everyday lineup. He hit only 13 home runs in his first season with the Phillies in 2022, but he jumped to 29 in 2023. He raised his season OPS nearly 100 points.
Castellanos ignited the Red October crowd at Citizens Bank Park with six extra base hits and an outstanding 1.440 OPS in the first two playoff rounds. The TV cameras adored the hilarious relationship with his son Liam. He followed up the hot streak with another dinger in Game 1 of the NLCS before a stunning power outage. Castellanos went 1/24 (.042) with 11 strikeouts in the seven-game series. Streaky bats are part of the game, especially during the postseason.
Jayson Stark spoke about an effort to acknowledge the approach that helped the Arizona Diamondbacks cool off Philadelphia’s hot bats in the NLCS.
“They completely switched gears, and the Phillies played right into their hands… There’s been a big emphasis on this camp to be more selective, not to stop being aggressive, but to be very focused on what you’re looking for.” –Jayson Stark
Castellanos could benefit from the adjustments as much as any hitter in the lineup. The Phillies have a valuable slugger. They’ll rely on him to protect top left-handed hitters Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
The slumps might frustrate fans even more than the average major league power hitter, but the Phillies will live with the bad and hope for the power bat that crushed the Atlanta Braves in the playoffs.
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh will never be a power bat that a playoff contender relies on. However, his OPS+ has steadily improved in his three major league seasons. He easily passed the MLB average of 100 in 2023.
- 2021 (70 games): 83 OPS+
- 2022 (134 games): 91 OPS+
- 2023 (133 games): 127 OPS+
Marsh enters 2024 in a better position to succeed in the field. He struggled to develop chemistry in center field with Schwarber to his left last season. He’ll play more games in left field if Johan Rojas or Cristian Pache emerges as a passable offensive player. A slight jump in extra base hits is another reason for optimism.
Marsh has also become one of the key faces (and haircuts) of a clubhouse dynamic that has come to the center of attention the past two Octobers. The Phillies believe in the 26-year-old as a solid long-term contributor.
Cristian Pache
When the Phillies acquired Pache on the eve of Opening Day in March 2023, he had a .156 career batting average in 332 plate appearances (PA). He improved to .238 in 95 PA in red pinstripes.
Pache will make his biggest contributions in the field, however. He finished with five defensive runs saved (DRS) in only 46 games. Bryson Stott was the only lineup regular who had more for the entire season, and he played over three times the number of games.
The Phillies, however, have two right-handed hitters with plus ability in center field and less than impressive offensive numbers. Johan Rojas finished with an outstanding 15 DRS in 57 games. Better competence at the plate could determine the winner of a competition between two players of the same mold.
Johan Rojas
The Phillies need to make a decision. Johan Rojas has never played in AAA. He could develop as a hitter with the opportunity to face pitchers with major league experience without the pressure of at-bats with a World Series contender at a packed Citizens Bank Park.
Rojas didn’t provide enough offensively during the postseason, but he did hit over .300 in a larger sample size of 59 regular-season games.
Most importantly, the Phillies want that glove in the outfield. He helped cover for below average defensive talent around him, and he helped fans recover from a near heart attack in Game 4 of the NLDS when Ronald Acuna Jr. sent a ball toward the gap in left-center field.
Rob Thomson left the door open on the first day of Spring Training for Rojas to win the job as the starting center fielder.
“This kid’s done a lot of work in the offseason, a lot of work in the weight room, and he’s done a lot of work with Kevin Long on swing mechanics, staying back and not jumping at the ball… Right now, he looks really good, and we’ll see how it plays out.” –Rob Thomson
A slow spring might delay his shot. Pache could be a better immediate option as a great outfielder with less impact at the plate. However, Rojas could easily change the narrative at any point in 2024 even if he doesn’t make the roster on Opening Day.
Whit Merrifield
The acquisition of Whit Merrifield to begin Spring Training made perfect sense. A veteran with three career All-Star appearances and the ability to play multiple positions provides insurance behind some of the question marks on the roster.
Merrifield is a .284 career hitter with a .750 OPS near the league average. Expect to see him fill in for any injured players or platoon with Johan Rojas or Brandon Marsh if circumstances call for it.
Jake Cave
The most intense sports market in the United States will remember the Diamondbacks retiring Jake Cave for the final out of the only postseason Game 7 in franchise history. One plate appearance doesn’t define a professional hitter, but the Phillies might look for a bigger threat off the bench.
Cave is a AAAA player who added versatility off the bench at points during the 2023 season. He’s a decent outfielder who slid to first base occasionally. He could stick in the majors for stretches in 2024 depending on how other outfielders like Pache and Rojas prove themselves. However, the Phillies shouldn’t count on him as a significant piece to a World Series effort.
Darick Hall is another internal option as a power bat off the bench. He doesn’t bring as much on defense as Cave, but the Phillies bench will probably begin the season in flux.
Kyle Schwarber
The position shuffle will keep Kyle Schwarber off the diamond on defense for most of the 2024 season. The Phillies will benefit from the lineup flexibility and the elimination of a liability in left field.
Schwarber will now utilize the strengths that pushed the Phillies to sign him to an expensive four-year contract entering the 2022 season. He’s provided excellent power at the top of the lineup with 93 home runs in his two seasons in Philadelphia, more than double any of his teammates.
Why is he such a hot topic of criticism as Thomson’s apparent preference in the leadoff spot? He is the most extreme statistical microcosm of the modern era of baseball that’s shifted focus away from traditional stat lines and ideas considered conventional wisdom for generations.
“This is the way it works with Kyle Schwarber. You accept this because this is the way the game is played today, as we know. Walks, homers, strikeouts, and Kyle Schwarber is like the poster boy for all three.” –Tim Kurkjian
He finished dead last in batting average among 134 qualified hitters in 2023, and he led the majors in strikeouts with 215.
He became the first player in major league history to hit below the Mendoza line with over 40 home runs. The former Chicago Cubs fan-favorite didn’t steal a base the entire season.
Schwarber also finished second in the National League in walks, becoming the first player ever to walk 120 or more times with a batting average under .200. The bases on balls offset the poor .197 average and drove his OBP to a respectable .343.
Batting order shouldn’t be a chief focus in MLB strategy anymore. Schwarber brings an outstanding bat in the DH spot. Expect another big season if the 31-year-old stays healthy for a full season.
