The crowd at Citizens Bank Park cheered a Philadelphia Phillies victory in the final home game of the regular season. Minutes later, they found even more reason for optimism when the big screen in right field showed the final out of a Milwaukee Brewers loss.
The Phillies have clinched the first-round bye. They’ll await a wild card opponent with home field advantage in the National League Division Series beginning on Saturday, October 5.
Rob Thomson has plenty of decisions to make in the next week, especially involving Cristopher Sanchez and Aaron Nola. Phillies fans will particularly wonder which starter will take the mound for Game 2 of the playoff series.
Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Thursday 9/19: Loss 10-6
- Friday 9/20: Win 12-2
- Saturday 9/21: Loss 6-3
- Sunday 9/22: Loss 2-1
Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
- Monday 9/23: Win 6-2
- Tuesday 9/24: Loss 10-4
- Wednesday 9/25: Win 9-6
All stats as of the beginning of play on September 26
National League Playoff Race
Clinching the National League East and the first-round bye doesn’t mean the remainder of the regular season has no consequence. The Phillies still have incentives to earn the best record in baseball to secure home field advantage throughout Red October, but at what cost?
“I’ve said all along, the two biggest things really for me are winning the division and getting the bye. Then if we get home field throughout, that’s a bonus, but I won’t put players in danger to get that.” -Rob Thomson
Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola will start the final three regular season games against the Washington Nationals, respectively. It’s possible that minimally shorter outings will serve them better before entering Red October as key pieces to a potential World Series run.
The Los Angeles Dodgers face the last-place Colorado Rockies this weekend. The Phillies own the tiebreaker over the assumed NL West champions.
The New York Yankees also have a good chance to finish with the best MLB record to steal home field advantage in a potential World Series. They own the tiebreaker over the Phillies.
The Phillies will naturally emphasize the Red October home field advantage as a priority, but the praise of their own fan base doesn’t necessarily indicate a top priority and a mindset that home field advantage will play a determining factor in playoff games.
Thomson has also made recent managerial decisions with an apparent eye on some situational tests for the postseason rather than a singular concentration on winning to earn the top seed.
Expect to see Thomson prioritize setting his players up best for the postseason this weekend in Washington with a secondary goal of finishing with the best record in baseball.
Austin Hays Forces Outfield Lineup Questions
A kidney infection had sidelined Austin Hays for over three weeks, but the trade deadline acquisition returned on Tuesday.
Hays hit .254 with a .649 OPS in 19 games before his IL stint began the first week of September. His 29.4% hard hit rate in the short run with the Phillies fell way short of his numbers at the peak of his performance with the Baltimore Orioles.
Dave Dombrowski landed Hays for a package that included Seranthony Dominguez to bolster the outfield offense. While the Phillies didn’t see a significant boost instantly, Hays has the opportunity to improve his conditioning through the remainder of the regular season and reach a better offensive rhythm.
Will he start in left field during the MLB Playoffs?
Rob Thomson has some decisions to make. He must balance the best defensive alignment with the highest offensive upside and consider handedness based on pitching matchups.
Lefty Brandon Marsh sits in the third percentile of MLB players in strikeout rate. He’s probably not suited well to start in center field against a left-handed starting pitcher in a lineup that needs better contact.
Righty Johan Rojas brings a good glove to center field and speed on the basepaths. Thomson might ask him to play a role as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, and the Phillies skipper could also elect for better starting defense and sit Marsh in favor of Rojas.
Both outfielders will earn some favor with their manager if they’re able to handle situational baseball that enables the lineup’s top sluggers to carry the Phillies during the postseason.
“There’s certain guys that we’ve handpicked that we’ve made sure they get extra work on the bunting because we’re coming into potentially low-scoring games where every run is huge. Sometimes, you’ve got to manufacture them against good pitching.” -Rob Thomson
Hays, Marsh, and Rojas have all shown varying levels of offensive deficiency in 2024. Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens have brought some pop to the lineup in spot starts this season. Any playoff slump could easily force Thomson’s hand to start one of the two reserves.
The Phillies will likely use different combinations in left field and center field in their starting lineups. Also expect Thomson to utilize bench players, especially in the later innings, if he feels a move can showcase one player’s particular skill.
Earlier this season, he openly questioned his own decision not to pinch hit for Rojas in Game 7 of the NLCS in 2023. Don’t expect him to waive a similar opportunity in 2024.
