By Tom Alvord

Last week, I wrote about some realistic bullpen pieces that could potentially help the Phillies make a playoff run this season. Since then the red-hot Phillies are 3-1 post-All Star Break winning their first series against the Miami Marlins. All this despite blowing their, MLB leading, 23^rd blown save of the season Saturday night. As we know, however, the bullpen is not the only issue with this team. 

The Phillies rotation is extremely top heavy. According to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, before the Marlins series the Phillies top three starters in Wheeler, Eflin, and Nola had pitched to a 3.48 ERA in 53 starts. The rest of their starters combined for a 5.65 ERA in 35 games. That’s not going to cut it. We’ve seen the likes of Vince Velasquez, Matt Moore, and Chase Anderson more than enough so far this season. If the Phillies want to get themselves into the playoffs, and potentially make some noise, a fourth starter is absolutely necessary.

Adding a legit fourth starter to this rotation would not only take pressure off the top 3 guys, but obviously also minimize the innings of the bottom 2 guys. Not to mention the positive effect it could potentially have on the bullpen. You’d much rather see a combination of Velasquez and Moore for one start, rather than having to rely on them in 2 consecutive games. So with that being said here are 6 realistic starting pitching targets Dave Dombrowski could snag at the deadline.

• Jon Gray RHP COL

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  Jon Gray’s name has been involved in trade rumors for seemingly his entire career in Colorado. Now being in the final year of his contract, and the Rockies being 18 games out of 1st place in the NL West, Gray is basically guaranteed to be traded. Gray’s numbers don’t pop off the page at first glance. He’s a career 4.48 pitcher with just over 9 K/9 innings. However this year has been a career year for the 29 year old Gray, going 6-6 with a 3.68 ERA in 17 starts. He also has been superb in his last 6 starts allowing just 7 runs in 30 innings (2.10 ERA) with 37 Ks. Gray would be an excellent 4th starter in the Phillies rotation and would make an impact almost instantly. 

• Kyle Gibson RHP TEX

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  Where did this come from? The big right hander has a career 4.42 ERA in 9 big league seasons, however this year he’s 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA on the last place Texas Rangers. Gibson has mostly been a slider/sinker dependent pitcher for the majority of his career, but a recently added cutter may be the reason for this career year. If brought in, Gibson would have the 2nd best ERA on the Phillies starting staff. But between being on the books next year for $8 million and Gibson’s value being sky high, this addition may be a bit too risky for Dave Dombrowski. Gibson also got lit up just last night for 8 earned runs in 5 innings against the lowly Tigers. 

• Danny Duffy LHP KC

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  Speaking of unexpected career years, may I introduce you to Danny Duffy? The 32 year old hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2017 but he’s 4-3 this year with a 2.51 ERA in 12 starts. Before being placed on the injured list in mid-May, Duffy had a minuscule 1.94 ERA through 41.2 innings. Since being activated on June 22nd he has yet to pitch more than 5 innings, however he’s allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched. He is in the final year of a disappointing 5 year contract ($13 million in 2021), making him potentially a cheap trade deadline option. Adding a legit lefty to this rotation could do wonders for the 2nd place Phillies.
• Tyler Anderson LHP PIT

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  Anderson isn’t going to light up the phone lines by any means if acquired from the Pirates, but he may be the most realistic option this July. Anderson had a minute $2.5 million luxury tax salary hit at the season’s start and is a free agent after 2021. He’s 5-8 with a 4.35 ERA and 80 Ks so far this season, but has been strong as of late allowing just 7 runs in his last 23.2 innings pitched (4 starts). With so many other big name starters available this deadline, Anderson should go under the radar and cost the Phillies next to nothing to acquire him. 

• Merrill Kelly RHP ARI

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  The former 8th round pick out of Arizona State has had an unusual path to the majors, not making his MLB debut until he was 30 years old. Now 32 and in his third big league season, Kelly appears to be one of few assets the dreadful Diamondbacks have left to sell. Kelly is a prototypical back end of the rotation starter so it shouldn’t cost the Phillies much in return. He has a career 4.26 ERA (4.46 in 2021) with an unimpressive 7.8 K/9 (7.6 in 2021). However Kelly is a reliable 4th starter who can eat up innings, which could be very valuable to a team like the Phillies. He also has a club option in 2022, giving the Phillies flexibility heading into next year.

• Michael Pineda RHP MIN

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  What happened to the Twins? After winning the AL Central the last 2 seasons, Minnesota finds themselves 13 games under .500 and 16 games out of first place. With the playoffs out of the picture and them having an aging roster that tells me one thing; sell, sell, sell. The Twins have a plethora of trade deadline targets that should interest the Phillies, (Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler) however the cheapest and most realistic option is Michael Pineda. The 32 year old has a huge 6’7” 280 lbs. frame and loads of potential, but has never seemed to be able to put it all together. The once top 20 prospect in baseball has a career 4.03 ERA with 8.9 K/9. This year has been much of the same, going 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and 55 Ks in 61.1 innings. However before going on the IL on May 19th, Pineda was the best pitcher on the Twins with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 38.2 innings. Now finally healthy, maybe the Phils could find some of that magic again for a low return.

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