Aaron Nola Looks Poised For Bounce Back Season
Last year could not have gone worse for Aaron Nola. Not only did he miss significant time with an injury, but his ERA for the season was 6.01. His velocity…
Last year could not have gone worse for Aaron Nola. Not only did he miss significant time with an injury, but his ERA for the season was 6.01. His velocity was way down, but even worse, he had control issues. He never looked right, struggled, went on the IL, and then even when he came back, had a 7.53 ERA in August and a 5.04 ERA in September.
This was not your usual inconsistent Nola. He always had that quality where he could look brilliant one night, or even in one inning, and then fall apart. But this was something else. Nola was not just inconsistent; he was flat-out bad.
His premier pitch has always been the Knuckle Curve. In 2024, hitters hit .221 and Slugged .381 vs it. Last year, they hit .274 and slugged .462. It also went from by far his most used pitch to only his 2nd most used pitch as he leaned more on his 4 Seamer.
Coming into this season, it is hard to find many in Philadelphia confident he will bounce back. Many assume this was the wear and tear finally catching up to him. Because whatever you say about Nola, the one thing you can count on is that he always went out there and pitched.
He has thrown more innings (1,527) since 2017 than any pitcher in baseball. Only 1 other pitcher has thrown 1,500 innings, and only 5 more have thrown at least 1,400. That is not even counting the playoffs, where he threw an extra 55 innings
The good news is that so far in the Spring, and in his lone start at the World Baseball Classic, there is reason to be optimistic.
The Velocity Is Back
Aaron Nola never has, and never will, be a pitcher who lights up the radar Gun. But his velocity dipped even by his standards last year. His 4 seamer averaged 91.9mph last season. In 2024, that was 92.5. His sinker fell from 91.5 to 90.7.
Those might seem like minor drops, but it makes a difference. Batters whiffed on just 13.9% of his 4 Seamers last year, compared to 23% in 2024.
But so far, the velocity is not only up compared to 2025, it is up compared to the last several years. In his WBC start vs Mexico, he hit 94 MPH with the sinker multiple times.
It was a similar story when he was with the Phillies in Spring. His fast pitches have more jump than usual.
Rest Paying Off?
One can connect the dots as to why quite easily. For the first time since the COVID-shortened season, he is not coming off a heavy workload. 204 innings in 2024, counting the playoffs, 216 in 2023, 230 in 2022. He pitched just 96 last year.
You can imagine he is pretty fresh. As bad as last year was, maybe it will be a good thing. Maybe Nola simply needed to give his arm a rest.
Aaron Nola looked fantastic vs Mexico at the WBC. It is not just a bump in velocity; he dominated a decent lineup. Nola tossed 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 4 hits and a walk. He also struck out 5 guys.
Can that carry into the season? Spring and WBC stats are never a great indicator of how the season will go. But what is more important is how good Nola's stuff looks, and that he says he feels good.
“I feel good, I really do,” Nola said after his first Spring Start with the Phillies. “My body feels good ramping up. I’m in good condition. I hope I’m healthy all year. I’m ready for 32, 33 starts again. I’m preparing for that.”
Rob Thomson thinks that little bit of extra velo will get Nola back on track.
“I think it’s important,” Thomson said. “He doesn’t have to be 97-98 (mph). If he’s in that 93-94 range, it makes his curveball better. They have to be ready for a little bit of fastball, so the change-up becomes better. I just think the stuff turns up a little.”
Nola likely won't make another start for Italy, unless they shock everyone and make a run to the Finals. His next start will likely be back in Clearwater. But if you are looking for reasons to be optimistic, March has given you exactly that.
