Jesus Luzardo Is Worth Every Penny Of His Big Extension

The Phillies just gave Jesus Luzardo a very lucrative contract. The 5-year $135 million deal makes him one of the highest paid Lefty Pitchers in the league. If you just look at his final ERA last season, you might think its a bit of an overpay. He finished the season with a 3.92 ERA. Not bad, but not exactly the number you look for from someone making nearly $30 million per year.

The problem is that ERA is very misleading. If you take a deeper look, it shows just how dominant Luzardo was last year, and why the Phillies were so eager to lock the lefty down long term.

After 11 starts last season, Luzardo had a shiny 2.15 ERA. After 13 starts, that ballooned to 4.46. Luzardo imploded at the end of May and gave up 20 runs over just 5.2 innings in 2 starts.

There was a report about him tipping his pitches. Maybe that was the case. Maybe there was something wrong with his mechanics. But it was as bad as a 2-start stretch can be.

That said, in the 19 starts that came after those starts, his ERA was 3.57. His FIP, a stat that attempts to judge a pitcher solely by things in their control, was 2.89, the 4th lowest among all starting pitchers in that time. He also had a WAR of 3.3, good for 3rd among all starting pitchers in that time.

Luzardo looked like a Cy Young Pitcher after 11 starts. He then had 2 starts so bad they ruined his chances to win the award, but from then on, he pitched like a Cy Young again. He even still finished 7th in NL Cy Young voting.

Those bad starts happened. But in his 30 other starts, he had a 3.03 ERA. Only 12 starters had a better ERA on the season than that.

A great way to judge any player is by how they play when they match up with the best teams and best players. Anyone can shut down the Marlins. But shutting down the Dodgers is a feat.

Luzardo faced the Dodgers 3 times last year, including a start in the playoffs. he also pitched in relief in the final game. Over 21.2 innings, Luzardo gave up just 6 earned runs vs the Dodgers. Good for a 2.49 ERA. In the playoffs, he went 6 strong innings and gave up just 2 runs vs the eventual World Champions

Here is where Luzardo ranked among all Starting Pitchers Last Year

Luzardo threw his Sweeper 933 times last year. Hitters slashed just .178 off it, and slugged just .264. It is one of the best pitches in baseball. His Baseball Savant chart looks elite across the board, with a barrel rate of just 6.6%. Every sabermetric you can judge a pitcher by shows he was better than the ERA suggests.

He went at least 6 innings in 21 of the 33 starts he made, including a 6-inning outing in the playoffs. He allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 19 of the 33 starts, and 3 or fewer in 22 of the 33 starts.

Any way you slice it, Luzardo is an elite pitcher. He had two awful starts that tainted the season. But even if in every season of this 5-year contract he has two starts like that, you will take it for the 30+ other starts where he pitches like a Cy Young contender.

Do not look at his ERA and think they overpaid. Luzardo is worth every penny, and the Phillies just ensured that with Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo locked in, they will have one of the league's elite 1-2 punches for at least 5 more years. Throw in Zack Wheeler for the next two years, and the high upside of Andrew Painter, and the Phillies' starting rotation is something worth being very excited about.