Will The Kyle Schwarber Situation be Resolved Soon?

There is one big question the Phillies need to resolve before they do anything else this season. Will they bring back Kyle Schwarber? The MVP runner-up is a free agent and is due to get a big contract. Signing, or not signing, Kyle Schwarber will dictate what they can do in the rest of free agency. The good news is that either way, they might get an answer soon.

Jeff Passan from ESPN took to Threads and reported that not only will his deal be big, but it might be the first big shoe to drop in this free agent class.

"Schwarber’s market is healthy. He’s going to get years, and he’s going to get AAV, and at this point, he might be the likeliest of the big free agents to sign first. Unclear if something gets done before the meetings, but I’d be surprised if they end and he doesn’t have a team. The Phillies remain the favourite, with Boston, Cincinnati, the Mets and others in the mix."

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported something similar. Likewise, suggesting that the Winter Meetings might be where the Schwarber situation is settled.

Kyle Schwarber had a contract year to end all contract years. The 32-year-old DH slugged 56 HRs and drove in 132 RBIs. Both numbers led the NL. He finished 2nd in the MVP race behind Shohei Ohtani, which is basically like winning the award now because it is hard to see anyone but Ohtani actually winning it for the foreseeable future.

Schwarber is expected to get 4-5 years, at roughly $30 million per year. ESPN projects a 4-year, $120 million deal, or a 5-year deal worth $135 million.

If a team wants to give him that 5th year, will the Phillies match it? On one hand, he is by far their most productive and reliable hitter from the past 4 years. Schwarber and Howard are the only Phillies players to ever have a 50 HR season, and to have 3 40 HR seasons in the span of 4 years. On the other hand, he will be 33 before the season starts, and would be 37-38 before this contract ends.

Do they want to invest big money in him long-term? If they do, in 4 years, they will have 4 players all over 35 making over $20 million per season. Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and then Schwarber. The other 3 besides Schwarber are already due $75 million combined in 2023. Schwarber would push that well over $100 million wrapped up in players 37 or older.

They either take a big hit in the short term or in the long term. Schwarber is unlikely to fall off a hill in the next 2 years, but year 4, and a possible year 5, could be ugly.

It is a lose-lose either way. But from the sounds of it, we should at least get an answer in the next few weeks, so the Phillies can move on to either fixing the team around Schwarber, or focus on replacing him if he signs elsewhere.