Phillies OffSeason Stay or Go: Kyle Schwarber

The big question of this off-season for the Phillies, do you pay Kyle Schwarber? On one hand, he just had an MVP-worthy season. On the other hand, any deal would keep him here into his mid to late 30's, he is going to be expensive, and this team is already too old.

If the Phillies want to shake things up, using the money they would pay Schwarber is the way to do it. But he has been your most productive player in the past 2 seasons, and losing him would be a massive blow to the lineup.

So does he stay, or does he go?

There is one thing no one can deny, these past 4 seasons are one of the best power stretches for any Phillies player short of Ryan Howard. In 4 seasons with the Phillies, Schwarber hit 187 HRs. An average of 46.8 HRs per season. The only Phillies player to hit more over any 4-season stretch is Howard, who hit 198 between 2006 and 2009.

It is worth noting that only 11 players have hit more than 187 HRs for the Phillies. But no one except for Howard hit them at the pace Schwarber did.

He is also 1 of just 7 Phillies to hit 40 HRs in a single season. This past season, Schwarber became the 2nd Phillies player to hit 50 in a season, coming just 2 shy of the record Howard set in 2006. He and Howard are the only ones to do it 3 times in 4 seasons. But Howard is the only one to do it 3 seasons in a row. Schwarber just missed out on 40 in 2024.

Not even Mike Schmidt hit HRs at this kind of pace. Schmidt's longevity let him get to 500. A task that seems daunting, though not impossible for Schwarber. But he never had a 4-year stretch like Schwarber did power-wise. The most he ever hit in a 4-year period was 159. Though he did hit at least 40 3 separate times, just not a 4-year period like Schwarber and Howard.

The downside is that Schwarber is getting older. He is 32, and will turn 33 before the end of Spring Training. Power Numbers don't typically go up as you reach your mid 30s. In fact, except in certain cases, they tend to start going down.

Just take some of the most prolific power hitters in MLB history as an example, the members of the 600 HR Club. Here is why that did before turning 33, and after turning 33.

Obviously there are some caveats here. Some got early starts, like ARod, meaning they had far more seasons before turning 33 than after. But that is part of the point. Careers tend to go sideways at that age. ARod went downhill fast. As did Ken Griffey Jr. Some players, like Pujols and Thome, played into their 40s. Bbut around 35, you saw a steep decline.

Bonds is the lone exception that saw his power numbers go up in old age, but we know why that was the case.

Schwarber won't fall off a cliff. Next year, he will likely still be a 40 HR type hitter. But what about when he is 34, 35, or 36. he wants a 5-year deal. The Phillies want to give him a 4-year one. Either way, he is here past 35 years old. Along with an aging Bryce Harper, and an aging Trea Turner. Do the Phillies really want $70+ million wrapped up in 3 players in their mid-30s?

Don't forget they will also still be paying Aaron Nola, who has 5 years left on his deal and is 32. So really, it will be north of $100 million wrapped up in players 35 years or older, 3 years from now.

The question is, say he signs elsewhere, where does the Phillies' power come from? In the past 4 seasons, 5 players have reached 30 HRs, 3 of them are Schwarber. Harper reached 30 in 2024, and Hoskins did in 2022. Harper was on pace in other seasons, but missed too much time.

You can take any other 2 Phillies players' Hr totals over the last 4 years and combine them. They still won't even match what Schwarber did over that time.

Bohm never developed a power swing. Turner is not a true power hitter. Castellanos has not been a power hitter for them and is likely gone. Marsh and Stott are not power guys. Justin Crawford is coming up, but he is not a power guy. Aidan Miller has power potential, but has not yet shown it in the minors. And Harper at this point is not going to get any healthier.

The Phillies won over 70% of the games where Schwarber hit a HR. He is the engine that made their offense run.

So how do they replace him? There is only 1 player with power numbers even close to Schwarber, who is a pending free agent, Pete Alonso. He has 158 HRs in the last 4 seasons, and is 2 years younger than Schwarber. Short of signing him instead, they will lose a ton of power if they don't resign Schwarber.

That said, Schwarber was not yet this prolific power hitter when they signed him. He only reached 30 HRs 3 times before 2022, and never reached 40. Part of that was injuries. He hit 33 HRs in just 113 games in 2021. But the point is, they bought low on a guy and it paid off. So maybe there is a similar move they can

There are cases for and against the move. But what matters is what the Phillies want to do.

Dave Dombrowski called bringing him back a priority.

“We’d love to bring Kyle Schwarber back. It’s a priority for us. He knows it. But he’s a free agent, and you never know what happens.”

Rob Thomson went deeper, and explained that losing him would mean losing more than just a power hitter, it would mean losing the club leader.

“He brings a lot. We’ve talked about it for four years — his calmness, professionalism, experience, how he can talk to younger players when they’re scuffling. He’s a huge piece in that clubhouse. If we lost him, hopefully other guys have learned from him and can carry it on. But hopefully we don’t.”

All of this makes it sound like they intend to bring him back.

In all likelihood, Kyle Schwarber is back. Will it pay off? We will have to wait and see. But there just is not a great alternative. They need his bat in the lineup.

Verdict: Stay