Aaron Nola’s Importance in Playoff Starting Rotation

Weston Wilson fired the ball off the hand of a sliding Dylan Crews with nobody out in the fifth inning. The mood at Citizens Bank Park shifted after the forced attempt at a 3-6-3 double play, despite a 5-0 lead for the Philadelphia Phillies against a last-place team on a perfect Saturday night in August.

Aaron Nola suddenly faced a jam. The Washington Nationals were threatening with runners on second and third and nobody out just six days after erasing a 6-0 deficit off the same starting pitcher.

The veteran right-hander didn’t allow one of his notorious poorly-timed home run balls. He didn’t let the floodgates open to underscore the brutal 6.92 ERA he carried into the game.

He escaped the jam with only one unearned run and ultimately collected his second win of 2025 (not without his fair share of warts in the sixth inning).

Whether his relentless critics like it or not, Nola is likely to take the mound as a starting pitcher if and when the Phillies clinch their fourth consecutive appearance in the MLB Playoffs.

The loss of Zack Wheeler eliminates any margin for error the Phillies might’ve had in their chase for an elusive World Series ring. It also left the club without a veteran right-handed pitcher one day before Aaron Nola returned to the hill for the first time in over two months.

Nola sits in the top 10 in franchise history in starts, wins, strikeouts, and WAR. He proved his durability through 10 major league seasons before his seven-year, $172 million deal began in 2025.

His bizarre tendency for strong seasons in even number years and down seasons in odd number years discredits any label as an ace in the top tier of MLB starting pitchers. However, Nola’s high variance in ERA in down seasons is in some ways just a product of living in the strike zone.

His numbers in most major pitching categories have still been above major league average in the down seasons. He challenges hitters – for better or for worse – with an approach that's led to valuable longevity. His brutal start in 2025 before his two months on the injured list is actually the only period that falls significantly below MLB statistical averages.

Nola also brings playoff experience to the table. He’s pitched 53 ⅔ innings in 10 postseason starts with a mixed bag of results and a 4.02 ERA. The club’s most successful homegrown player of the current run of playoff contention started the clinching games of the National League Wild Card Round in 2022 and 2023 and the division-clincher in September 2024.

The Phillies can’t simply hyperfocus on his track record through 2024. Is the former seventh-overall pick wearing down after 10 seasons of heavy workloads? Will a reset after the long stint on the injured list benefit him?

Nola’s four-seam fastball velocity had dipped early in the season. The home run vulnerability became obvious. He repeatedly left pitches over the plate in his first start off the IL on August 17. He has a long way to go until he regains his rhythm and solidifies himself at the top of a playoff rotation. 

The 32-year-old leaned heavily on the fastball and knuckle curveball on Saturday against the Nationals. Increased fastball velocity that topped out at 94 miles per hour helped complement his other pitches. He also emphasized after the game that he feels the uptick in velocity helps cover up smaller mistakes in location at some points.

The Phillies reasonably expect Nola's numbers to trend back toward his career norms, but at what extent should they set those expectations?

Aaron Nola might’ve steered the ship back in the right direction on Saturday. However, skeptics will naturally worry about the two solo home runs he allowed in the sixth inning to let Washington creep back into the game.

Struggles in his first 10 starts of 2025, the tendency for allowing a devastating big inning, and questions about a pitcher potentially past his prime won’t inspire confidence for intense, demanding Phillies fans entering Red October. Does Nola deserve to take the ball in a crucial postseason game?

The NL Wild Card Round and NL Division Series will only require a three-man rotation. Cristopher Sanchez has developed arguably the best changeup in the majors, and he's currently second in NL Cy Young odds by most sportsbooks. He’ll take preference as a Game 1 starter.

The Phillies in an ideal situation would choose Nola behind Sanchez. Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have pitched more effectively in 2025, but either lefty would provide a smoother fit out of the bullpen.

Suarez pitched in relief twice during the run to the World Series in 2022 and for long regular season stretches early in his MLB career. Luzardo’s velocity and energy in big moments could also help him transition effectively into a short-term bullpen role.

Thomson prioritized sandwiching a lefty between Wheeler in Game 1 and Nola in Game 3 of the NLDS in 2024. He’d prefer a right-hander between Sanchez and either Suarez or Luzardo in a potential Game 3 this year.

Most of the top National League playoff contenders have hit lefties well in 2025. A matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, or Chicago Cubs might sway Thomson away from leaning too heavily on lefties considering the split stats. If the Phillies were to face the New York Mets or Cincinnati Reds in a Wild Card Series, conversely, the factor wouldn’t weigh as heavily.

A World Series contender can’t decide playoff starters based simply on handedness or sentimentality. Nola must prove himself in the regular season with about six more starts left in the heat of the pennant race if he wants Thomson to elect for a right-hander behind Sanchez.

Different scenarios could shake up the playoff starting rotation. The Phillies might or might not make the postseason, win the NL East, or earn a first-round bye. Playing in the Wild Card Round would shift the plans drastically. They might use Sanchez or another playoff starter in the final days of the season and alter the availability of their preferred starters. Injuries and other unforeseen circumstances could arise over the next five weeks.

Less traditional options like a piggyback start or an opener to face a pocket of opposing hitters might also fit the staff's strengths, depending on the circumstances.

However, one thing is for certain. Aaron Nola just stepped back into into a starting rotation that desperately needs the strength of a durable, experienced right-hander to regain the chemistry that made them the best staff in the majors before Wheeler’s health concerns changed their dynamic.

The door is wide open for Nola to steal a high-impact playoff role, and the Phillies hope the pieces fall into place conveniently enough to lean on their $172 million man.