97.5 The Fanatic Phillies Notebook: Diagnosing Offensive Struggles

The roller coaster took another dip in Houston. The Philadelphia Phillies handed first place in the National League East right back to the New York Mets with an ugly offensive drought immediately after the weekend surge.

The Phillies scored one run in three games against the Houston Astros in a three-game sweep eerily reminiscent of the final three games of the 2022 World Series.

The Phillies couldn’t figure out Houston’s starters. They couldn’t figure out Houston’s relievers. They couldn’t hit lefties or righties. Their only run of the series came on a sacrifice fly by Brandon Marsh in the eighth inning of the series finale. It snapped a streak of 26 consecutive scoreless innings.

It was their most painfully obvious poor performance in a pattern of extreme peaks and valleys.

What was the problem?

Thomson has stayed patient through offensive droughts this season. He’s emphasized the need to manufacture runs with fundamentals when Phillies hitters are struggling. However, their offensive shortcomings aren’t about a lack of small ball.

Edmundo Sosa doubled off Framber Valdez in the series opener, and the Phillies didn’t hit for extra bases again off Astros pitching through the remainder of the series. Their lack of power is a more concerning characteristic of the 2025 Phillies that outweighs the notorious boom or bust cliche that’s been a topic of conversation in recent seasons.

Dave Dombrowski has assembled and paid hitters to slug, but the Phillies haven’t followed through. Their 83 home runs land them in the lower half of the majors, tied for 16th with the Washington Nationals. They haven't made up for it with gap power, ranking 18th with 126 doubles.

Their .399 slugging percentage would be the franchise’s lowest since 2018, Bryce Harper’s final season in Washington.

The Phillies entered 2025 planning to adjust their plate approach. They believed better plate selection and more focus on hitting the opposite way could help their vulnerability to untimely slumps.

Is a less aggressive mentality trimming down their total of extra-base hits?

The question of growing pains was more prevalent early in the season. They ranked 10th in the majors in chase rate on May 6 after finishing 25th last season. They now rank 22nd, chasing 29.1% of pitches outside the unofficial ABS strike zone.

Nick Castellanos most obviously dismissed the plate discipline explanation with a brutal approach to record the final out of the Houston series. He swung at three pitches in exactly the type of at-bat that’s drawn criticism to him and his teammates in recent seasons.

A lack of hitting overshadowed outstanding pitching.

The Astros scored only five runs in their three-game sweep of the Phillies. The bullpen allowed two, and Trea Turner is as much responsible as Zack Wheeler for Houston’s only run off the staff ace in the second game of the series.

Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Cristopher Sanchez combined for an outstanding 0.93 ERA in 19 ⅔ innings at Daikin Park.

The rotation is the unmistakable strength of a flawed team. Phillies starters rank fourth in the majors with a 3.36 ERA. They rank first in FIP (fielding independent pitching), a predictive stat suggesting that below average defense has slightly inflated their staff ERA.

The rotation’s track record and rhythm could conceivably push them ahead of an injury-riddled Mets rotation for the top spot in ERA.

The Phillies and Astros are also tied for the best strikeout rate from starting pitchers at 25.9%.

Dombrowski offseason of “openmindedness” didn’t materialize for the roster’s more obvious areas of weakness. He pivoted to acquire Jesus Luzardo and fortify the unit that was already the club’s greatest strength in 2024.  

The surplus of starting pitchers and a struggling bullpen makes the Phillies appear poorly constructed. However, moving parts with Andrew Painter, Aaron Nola, and potential trade pieces will impact the goal to optimize the pitching staff before the postseason.

The National League Division Series schedule will require teams to use only three starting pitchers. The extra off-days in a playoff series could even the lopsided performance of starters versus relievers during the regular season if the Phillies clinch a bid to Red October.

A weekly appearance from a Hall of Famer sets the record straight at 97.5 The Fanatic.

Jayson Stark joined The Mike Missanelli Show during his Wednesday slot just hours after releasing an interview on Starkville with Dave Dombrowski.

Dombrowski discussed the MLB Trade Deadline during the interview. He mentioned the possibility of prospects Otto Kemp and Justin Crawford as internal improvement options that could offset the need to acquire a hitter. He also acknowledged that multiple starters might come out of the bullpen in October.

However, Dombrowski’s most definitive statements had to do high-leverage relievers as the “first and foremost” focus of potential trades.

Jayson Stark believes Dombrowski’s sights on extending Philadelphia's window of World Series opportunity might push him to acquire a reliever with significant club control remaining.

Stark doesn’t anticipate Emmanuel Clase or Aroldis Chapman as Dombrowski’s targets. He acknowledged that Minnesota Twins fireballer Jhoan Duran checks more of the boxes.

The Phillies haven’t invested in relief pitchers as a primary focus during Dombrowski’s tenure. Bullpen implosions, however, have derailed the veteran executive’s World Series chances in multiple stops during his storied career.

Will Dombrowski push the chips to the center of the table to fix a glaring void of dependable high-leverage relievers?

The Phillies will head to Truist Park to face the Atlanta Braves for a three-game weekend set.

All numbers as of the beginning of play on June 27. All advanced stats courtesy of StatCast, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs.