Evaluating Short-Term & Long-Term Future of J.T. Realmuto

Rob Thomson respects the offensive track records and personal preferences of his veterans as much as any MLB manager when making out his lineup card. However, he dropped J.T. Realmuto to the eighth spot in the Philadelphia Phillies order to begin their current homestand.

The 34-year-old built a reputation during his career prime as the best all-around catcher in baseball. However, Realmuto has struggled at the plate in the fifth and final season of the $115.5 million contract he signed in January 2021.

It's safe to say the Phillies shouldn't expect the same player who posted some of the best offensive numbers in MLB history for any catcher in his age range in 2022.

How much should they anticipate from Realmuto offensively-- or in the all-around game that's earned him such a fantastic reputation? What does it mean for the future of an impending free agent catcher?

Realmuto slipped in 2023 in the worst offensive season of his Phillies career. However, his batting average falls 23 points lower through two months in 2025 than in the disappointing full season two years ago, and his OPS is 90 points lower. 

He's especially struggled against left-handed pitching with an .109 batting average and a .300 OPS. Some of the technique drills Realmuto has practiced recently have been geared toward facing lefties because of the slump. 

The Phillies announced a plan to lessen his workload entering 2025, which factored into the decision to keep Rafael Marchan as the backup catcher instead of clubhouse favorite Garrett Stubbs.

However, they haven't followed through yet. Realmuto started 51 of Philadelphia's first 65 games, roughly 78%, in 2024 through the end of the MLB London Series on June 9. He then missed about six weeks for right knee surgery.

He's started 46 of the first 56, just over 82%, in his 12th major league season at age 34. Thomson hoped that the intended lighter workload would take pressure off Realmuto's body and ultimately help his strength at the plate.

The former Texas high school football star has also grounded into 10 double plays this season, tied for second most of any MLB hitter. He's toward the bottom tier of offensive output at his position after years in the conversation as the best catcher in baseball.

J.T. Realmuto threw out baserunners at an otherworldly rate that far exceeded the major league average during the early seasons of his tenure with the Phillies.

While his pop time has remained pretty steady this season for a 34-year-old, his caught stealing percentages have slipped since MLB rule changes incentivized stolen bases in 2023. His scores in blocks and framing have dropped in 2025.

The ability to connect with his pitchers and call effective games behind the plate is his most integral value to the Phillies in 2025. The pitching staff’s preference forces Thomson to ride with his trusted veteran backstop.

Marchan has also mentioned the value of learning game preparation strategies from Realmuto during his development.

A dominant starting rotation is the best hope for the 2025 Phillies to win the World Series. The organization is committed to the core of starting pitchers on long-term deals that extend past Realmuto's current contract. Altering their plans behind the plate would impact their greatest organizational strength.

A player described as a “captain” and “backbone” must also add veteran utility value to the lineup if he’s not at his peak offensive form. Realmuto will work to eliminate the double-play groundouts, and his veteran acumen should help him correct a few uncharacteristic mistakes on pass balls and on the basepaths.

His flawless catch and tag in the 10th inning on Saturday against the Athletics finished Brandon Marsh’s outfield assist to prevent a walk-off sacrifice fly. 

He also grinded out a walk with the bases loaded against Daysbel Hernandez in the eighth inning of the series opener against the Atlanta Braves. The RBI gave the Phillies a key insurance run in a 2-0 victory.

Thomson and the Phillies trust Realmuto’s track record as a versatile veteran asset to any MLB team. If Realmuto moves back into the top half of major league catchers in key offensive categories, the Phillies should be satisfied with an aging catcher’s overall contributions.

There's no clear plausible path to changing the outlook behind the plate at Citizens Bank Park this season or this winter.

The Phillies won’t count on Marchan or Stubbs in an everyday role, and top catching prospect Eduardo Tait won’t reach the majors in 2026.

Jayson Stark estimated during his appearance on 97.5 The Fanatic that the Phillies might be able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto to a two-year, $25 million contract through 2027.

Realmuto's performance the rest of the season will factor heavily into Dave Dombrowski’s evaluation of the organization’s future at the catcher position.

Can J.T. Realmuto reverse his declining value enough to contribute to the Phillies in a season with World Series expectations?

All numbers as of the beginning of play on May 30. All advanced stats courtesy of StatCast, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs.