Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC: Odds, Spread, and Total
When is a mismatch not a mismatch? In soccer, it’s when a top contender is thought to be putting a lesser lineup on the field than it’s technically capable of….
CHESTER, PENNSYLVANIA – MAY 24: Quinn Sullivan #33 of the Philadelphia Union celebrates after scoring the team’s first goal during the MLS match between Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami CF at Subaru Park on May 24, 2025 in Chester, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
When is a mismatch not a mismatch? In soccer, it's when a top contender is thought to be putting a lesser lineup on the field than it's technically capable of. Toronto FC is 3-4-8 and mired in next-to-last place in the MLS Eastern Conference coming into tonight's tilt with the visiting Philadelphia Union at 7:30 p.m. EST. However, the betting odds are more tightly wound than those on today's Chelsea vs Real Betis finale.
Philadelphia hasn't held back its starting lineup as often as forecasted, as the Union prefers to ride the momentum from a surge that's put Philly atop the conference table for now. There was a solid lineup on hand for the Union's 4-1 tournament win over Pittsburgh, and nothing to indicate rust in the best-choice forwards who scored three times on Inter Miami last weekend, though Miami stormed back to tie 3-3.
Toronto's brave odds are buoyed by recent history. The Reds manufactured a 2-1 win over the Union in the clubs' last meeting in 2024. But the Canadian club wasn't in 14th place when that game happened.
Spread
- Philadelphia Union -0.25 (+105)
- Toronto FC +0.25 (-125)
Moneyline
- Philadelphia Union +135
- Toronto FC +185
- Draw +260
Total
- Over 2.75 (+102)
- Under 2.75 (-122)
*The above data was collected on May 28, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Betting Trends
- Philadelphia is on a six-match unbeaten streak across all competitions.
- Five of Philadelphia's league matches in a row have gone over betting totals.
- Toronto FC has lost five of its last seven matches across all competitions.
- Philadelphia is winless in its last three contests against Toronto.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Injury Reports
Philadelphia Union
- Defender Ian Glavinovich is out with a knee injury.
- Defender Neil Pierre is out with a knee injury.
- Goalkeeper Andre Blake is questionable with a knee injury.
Toronto FC
- Defender Kobe Franklin is out with an ankle injury.
- Defender Nicksoen Gomis is out with a lower-body injury.
- Forward Deandre Kerr is out with an ankle injury.
- Midfielder Richie Laryea is out with a lower-body injury.
- Midfielder Markus Cimermancic is questionable with a lower-body injury.
- Defender Raoul Petretta is questionable with an ankle injury.
Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Predictions and Picks
Philadelphia's manager, Bradley Carnell, might have inadvertently caused a rush to Toronto's market with a quote for the Union's homepage, in which the HC tried to spin the substitutions forced upon all MLS teams by May's crazy schedule. "We're going to have a nice, big traveling roster" in Toronto, Carnell confessed.
For speculators who watch managers' lineup choices, that means making a lot of nice, big bets on the underdog's full starting 11. But there are clues that Philly's roster is getting stronger overall, like keeper Andre Blake's recovery. Toronto's lineup is significantly weakened by injuries compared to Philadelphia's solid corps.
Cheap odds on outcomes of three-plus total goals overlook a forecast of rain. Philly's strikers will be booting fastballs at keeper Sean Johnson, whose hands will get cold before the attackers' feet will. Look for an aggressive Union squad, and an over-total-goals final score on a wet pool table in Toronto.
