Could Kyle Schwarber Break Ryan Howard’s Record?

In 2006 Ryan Howard set the Phillies single-season record with 58 HRs. It was the best single season we have ever seen from a Phillies hitter. That record has stood for nearly 20 years with no one else even reaching 50 hrs in that span. But could Kyle Schwarber be the man to break it?

Schwarber currently has 18 HRs through 54 games. It puts him on pace for 54 HRs, 4 shy of Howard's record. But pace does not take into account that power numbers go up throughout the year. For instance, when the calendar turned to June, Howard had 18 HRs in that record-breaking season. He hit 23 in the final 2 months.

So when we look at pace, we should expect the power numbers to go up.

Schwarber, in particular, is a guy whose power numbers spike later in the year. Take last year as an example. In April and May, he hit a HR every 19.1 at-bats, but went on to hit a HR every 13.4 at-bats in the final 4 months. A nearly 30% bump in pop.

That pretty much tracks with the rest of his Phillies career. As the weather gets warmer, he hits balls even further.

113 of his 302 career HRs came in August/September. Compare that to April/May, where before this season he had 72. He has 99 in June/July.

So far this year, Schwarber has hit a HR every 10.7 at-bats. If he has his usual power jump, he would hit a HR every 7.5 at-bats the rest of the way. That would be 51 more HRs, for 69 total. That is probably a bit extreme.

Let's be conservative and say it only improves to an HR every 9.7 at-bats. Even that small jump would still be 40 more HRs, and he would tie Howard's record.

He still would not match the overall greatness of Howard's MVP season, who also hit .313, with an OBP of .425. We might never see a hitter have a season that good again in a Phillies jersey.

But if Schwarber keeps this up, and avoids injury, we could easily be on record watch come September. At the very least, he looks to be only the 2nd Phillies hitter to reach 50. But he has a real shot at 58, and even a shot at 60.