Phillies Improving Chase Rate, But At What Cost?

After a disappointing loss in the 2024 National League Division Series, the Philadelphia Phillies refused to scapegoat their manager or hitting coach.

Rob Thomson signed a contract extension through 2026. Dave Dombrowski also retained Kevin Long, one of the most reputable hitting coaches in baseball, despite a predictable, free-swinging offensive approach that led to a collective cold streak and spoiled another Red October with World Series hopes. 

The 2025 Phillies have improved their chase rate, (or out of zone swing percentage, if you will), but an overall underwhelming offensive start demonstrates why plate discipline extends beyond raw statistical chase rate.

Kyle Schwarber spoke before Game 2 of the NLDS about the lineup’s disappointing performance in a series opening loss. The Phillies managed only two runs against a battered New York Mets staff running on fumes into Citizens Bank Park. 

They had finished 25th among MLB teams chasing 30.3% of pitches outside the estimated ABS strike zone during the 2024 regular season. Critics vehemently warned against the same overaggressive approach that burned the Phillies in a playoff collapse against the Arizona Diamondbacks one year earlier.

The club’s respected leader offered insight that critics didn’t necessarily touch on enough.

Schwarber didn’t intend to make excuses for the lineup’s Game 1 dud. He explained the greater goal of better pitch selection that maintains freedom for a lineup of big-time sluggers to swing away aggressively.

The Phillies responded strongly with seven runs in Game 2. However, two more brutal offensive showings at Citi Field drove the offseason narrative about undisciplined, free swingers vulnerable to playoff slumps.

The Phillies have shown an obvious example through the early part of the 2025 season of how Schwarber’s expanded explanation paints a more complete picture than one raw number.

They’ve improved their team chase rate considerably. Rob Thomson has complimented his hitters’ habits to “spit on” low breaking balls that’s helped them fish for 3% fewer pitches outside the ABS zone.

The overall results aren’t there yet, as the Phillies rank 11th in the majors in runs per game. Is an altered approach at the plate sacrificing the strengths of a lineup that finished tied for fourth in runs scored in 2024?

A deliberate attempt to avoid chasing causes hitters to take more pitches in the zone. The Phillies have taken called strikes at a significantly higher rate in 2025.

Trea Turner exemplifies the statistical shift better than any hitter. He’s gone from the 16th percentile of MLB hitters in chase rate last season to the 41st percentile in 2025, but at what cost for the Phillies?

The high-priced shortstop has taken called strikes at more than a 9% higher rate this season. His power numbers have slipped in a slow start. After averaging 28 home runs per 162 games in his first two seasons with the Phillies, Turner went deep only once in his first 32 games this season. His .367 slugging percentage falls astonishingly far below his .481 career mark entering 2025.

Thomson has encouraged Turner to concentrate on reaching base safely without worrying about pull power. The instruction brings up the question of whether the Phillies are getting good value from a $300 million contract earned by a player with good career power numbers.

Philadelphia’s shortage of extra-base hits conflicts with the profile of other big hitters like Bryce Harper, whose zone swing percentage is drastically lower in 2025 than in his previous seasons with the Phillies.

The Phillies haven’t mastered the pitch selection Schwarber spoke about. Their ability to develop the right balance could determine their greater ability to compete with the best offenses in the majors this season.

Five of the nine teams with lower chase rates than the Phillies also have a better team slugging percentage, and these clubs aren't coincidentally among the World Series contenders.

The Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers make up the top three in both slugging percentage and runs per game in 2025. They rank 7-1-6 in chase rate, respectively.

Dombrowski and evaluators within the organization entered the season recognizing the need to fix their Achilles heel. The Phillies haven’t achieved the difficult goal immediately.

They entered the season expecting veteran hitters to develop better plate discipline habits, and the process was always going to have its growing pains.

Schwarber gave them a successful blueprint last season of a veteran hitter who successfully adjusted his offensive approach. He raised his batting average 51 points from .197 in 2023 to .248 in 2024 while also increasing his slugging percentage. His improvement took time after a .198 average in April 2024.

Rob Thomson has consistently expressed confidence in his hitters to slug as the season progresses. His calm, collected managing style enables players to remain confident when they can’t see results in small sample sizes.

The Phillies have already jumped to 11th in slugging percentage with a short surge in May after finishing the month of April in the 17th position. 

Their ability to make adjustments will determine the outcome of a season with pressure and tension surrounding a lineup of aging sluggers with World Series hopes.

All numbers as of the end of play on May 1. All advanced stats courtesy of StatCast, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs.