The Bryce Harper Power Outage: Where Are The Home Runs?
Through 20 games, Bryce Harper had 5 HRs. A pace of 40.5 HRs by the end of the season. He just hit 3 in 4 games, and it looked like…
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 22: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on during the seventh inning of the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on April 22, 2025 in New York City.
(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)Through 20 games, Bryce Harper had 5 HRs. A pace of 40.5 HRs by the end of the season. He just hit 3 in 4 games, and it looked like the Bryce Harper we all know had finally woken up. In the 11 games since, he has hit 0 HRs. His SLG over that time is just .256. It reduced his HR pace to 26 on the season.
It is not the first elongated HR drought this season for him. After hitting one on opening day, he went 9 games without a long ball. Then, after hitting one on 4/9, he went another 5 days. The bulk of his power numbers came on one homestand. Outside of the great 4-game stretch, he is slugging .413. Almost 100 points below his career average.
So, what is behind this power drought? The weird thing is, he is hitting the ball hard. His hard hit rate is a bit down from its normal mark, but not much. Harper is still in the top 20% of the league. He is actually striking out less than usual this season. The walks are still there. By all accounts, if you look at the underlying metrics, he should be having a good season.
The one outlier is launch angle. Jayson Stark joined The Afternoon Show this week and talked about the Harper power outrage, back when it was still at only 9 games. He had a simple explanation for why the ball is not leaving the park.
"What generally happens is his swing gets out of sync, and he doesn't get the ball in the air. His hard hit rate is over 55%. You would take that from anyone in the lineup. But his launch angle on those swings is 9 degrees, which is the opposite of what you want. Unless the fence is 4 inches off the ground, you cannot hit homeruns with that launch angle."
It is a problem we have seen with Bryce Harper before. In 2023, Harper went 39 games with no homeruns. Granted, he was coming off Tommy John Surgery. He responded by hitting 10 HRs in August, 6 in September, and then 5 in the playoffs. Last season Harper went 128 at-bats with no homeruns. He broke that with a 2 HR game in September
Both of those droughts were due to the same problem: his launch angle. If you don't get the ball in the air, it can't leave the park.
That is just physics. You could hit the baseball as hard as anyone has ever hit a baseball, but if there is no launch angle, that thing is not making it over the outfield wall. There is a lot more that goes into just this, but the two basic factors of how far a baseball will travel are launch angle and speed off the bat.
You need a fast bat and the right launch angle. Too flat, the ball doesn't get into the air. Too steep, you are hitting the ball into the air, and it is not getting past the 2nd base bag. Harper has the bat speed part down. He has not regressed as a hitter. He just needs to tweak the angle.
So how does this get fixed? Jayson Stark talked about that too.
"When he has gone through these things, I think he gets away from what makes him special. He stops letting the game come to him and tries to force it. He swings too much, and he chases too much. More than he knows he should. But I think he feels like the next swing is the swing where he will find it. I guess he is right, it is going to happen. He is Bryce Harper. But how much better would this team's record look if Bryce was hitting hrs like October Bryce?"
And we should expect it to eventually fix itself. This is Bryce Harper. The guy has proven himself time and time again. He is right there. He is hitting balls very hard, just not in the air. Often, they are right at the defenders. Harper crushed a ball the other night, but it was right back to the pitcher for an out.
Eventually, he will figure out the launch angle, get balls up in the air, and then they will be landing in the 2nd deck of Citizens Bank Park. Harper, although not off to the best start, is not the problem with the Phillies right now. Him struggling is still better than half of the Phillies' lineup.
It sure would be nice if it happened sooner rather than later though. Because this lineup badly needs more pop. It needs Harper to be MVP Harper. Right now, they are not getting that.
