A Reminder of How Good Andrew Painter Could Be

Before the 2023 season, Philly was a buzz with the idea of Andrew Painter making it to the bigs. He looked like a lock to make the open day roster as a 19-year-old. Those hopes were dashed pretty quickly. He suffered an injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. We did not see him on the mound again until April of 2025, where he has pitched 3 games in Clearwater, pitching 7.1 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and striking out 10 hitters.

There were some cobwebs to shake out, and they are still not letting him pitch deep into games. But we are seeing why excitement for the Phillies' prospect was so high back in the Spring of 2023. His next start is scheduled to take place in Clearwater, a call-up to AAA is coming soon, and eventually, maybe June or July, he will make his MLB debut.

There is slightly less excitement now then there was back in 2023. Maybe that is because the city has soured slightly on this Phillies team after 2 playoff collapses. Maybe it is because 2 years have passed and fans forgot how great he is. But even with the Major League club scuffling out of the gate, there is reason to be excited about his eventual debut.

There is a good reason why Painter was at one point considered the top pitcher in baseball. Between 3 levels in 2022 Painter pitched to a 1.56 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 155 ks over 103.2 innings.

He started out in Low A Ball, where he had a ridiculous K rate of 16.1 per 9. It became clear that his stuff was way too good for the Low-A hitters to even make contact. So they moved him up to High A at the Jersey Shore. His K Rate stayed at 12.0 per 9, and his ERA fell to .98. So they moved him up to AA for the last 5 starts of his season. There, his ERA rose to 2.54, but his WHIP stayed under 1.0, and he struck out 11.8 hitters per 9 innings.

Whatever level they put him at, he mowed down hitters. And it was not just sheer stuff, he controlled it too. He walked just 25 batters over 103.2 innings. The control got better as the season went on. After walking 16 hitters in Low A, he walked only 7 in High A, and then only 2 in AA.

That season had him ranked as the 6th-best prospect in the MLB before 2023. Number 1 for pitchers. Baseball America ranked him 5th, and 1st among pitching prospects. Fangraphs had him 14th, and 2nd among pitchers. Everyone who watches minor league baseball was gushing about the kid.

Right now, Andrew Painter boasts a 5-pitch repertoire. A 4-seam fastball that averages 98.3 and touches 100. It also has some decent spin, riding up in the zone. His new slider replaces what used to more of a sweeper. The new improved version is harder, touching the high 80s. He also has a pretty deadly curveball, and an effective changeup.

He is actually throwing harder than when he first debuted in the Phillies system. His fastball sat in the low to mid 90s when first drafted. Now, even after the surgery, he throws it harder, still with the trademark control that made him so deadly in 2022. And as mentioned, the Slider is harder too, something he was working on even before the injury,

Andrew Painter gave up 2 runs in his first Single-A outing. In the second inning, he let 2 baserunners get on. They pulled him; they always planned to have a very short leash, and the bullpen gave up both inherited runners. But he struck out 3 of the 7 hitters he faced, with 4 total outs. His next 2 times out Painter pitched 6 total innings, gave up only 5 baserunners, no walks, no runs, and struck out 7 hitters.

By the way, he also pitched in the Fall League. In 15.2 innings, he had a 2.3 ERA (2nd Best in the league), a .189 batting average against, and struck out 18 hitters.

If there was any concern about him losing his touch after the surgery, you can bury that fear. His stuff looks just as good as it did in 2022. Better even. As mentioned, the stuff is harder, without losing any control.

Don't take my word for it. Take the word of one of baseball's premier writers, Jayson Stark. He joined the Fantic before the season, and some lofty praise for Andrew Painter

If he is that good, why aren't we seeing him yet? The Phillies are going to play it safe with him. He has hardly thrown any pitches in the past 2 years.

They are going to bring him up to speed very slowly. he has not pitched past the 3rd inning in any start yet. That will likely continue, even in AAA. When he gets to the majors, he may not pitch past the 5th. There is going to be hard innings limit on him this season. The plan is for him to be a great asset for the next decade, not just this season.

So don't expect him to come up until June or July. When he gets here, don't expect him to go deep into games. Pitchers dont go right from major surgery to pitching 200 innings. They will try and get him to 120 this season.

If that means skipping starts, they will do that. When he gets up, the current plan is to have a 6-man rotation, and he will be the 6th man. They will not over exert him this season, and risk further injury.

This is also a team that hopes to keep playing late into October. Which means more games and more innings. Would there be a spot for him in the rotation? If he is as good as we think, maybe. But he might come out of the pen if he has pitched too many innings.

Still, the future is very bright, and Phillies fans should be excited about having our own young phenom like we currently see out in Pittsburgh. That is the type of prospect we are talking about here.