We Simulated The Eagles First Round Pick 10,000 Times
For the past few years, I have done an experiment that mostly shows just how depressing my social life is. I simulate the Eagles 1st round pick 10,000 times. And…
Boston College Eagles defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (6) reacts after a sack against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second half at Alumni Stadium.
Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn ImagesFor the past few years, I have done an experiment that mostly shows just how depressing my social life is. I simulate the Eagles 1st round pick 10,000 times. And with the draft coming up on Thursday, it was time to empty my already empty social calendar again, roll up my sleeves, and dive into the experiment again.
Using 3 different Mock Draft tools, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Network, and ESPN, I ran simulations for the Eagles draft 10,000 times, 3,333 per tool, with one extra thrown in there. The process takes me over 12 hours over the course of a month and change, plus a couple of more hours breaking down the data and writing this article.
The thing is, it has been shockingly accurate. In 2022, it projected Jordan Davis to the Eagles after 1000 simulations. Unfortunately that article has been lost somewhere in the ether. It exists nowhere on the front end or backend of our website anymore. In 2023, it mocked Jalen Carter to the Eagles. Last year, it mocked Cooper DeJean to the Eagles, who eventually ended up an Eagle, but in round 2 instead.
Coincidence? Probably. But the fact it picked a player they drafted in all 3 years is worth noting.
So who will the simulation pick this time? Here are how the simulations panned out.
Pro Football Network
| Pro Football Network | |
| Player | Times Drafted |
| ED-Donovan Ezeiruaku- BC | 429 |
| OG- Grey Zabel- ND State | 368 |
| DT- Derrick Harmon- Oregon | 379 |
| DT- Walter Nolen- Ole Moss | 362 |
| DT- Tyleik Williams- Ohio State | 261 |
| LB- Jihad Campbell- Bama | 238 |
| ED- Mike Green- Marshall | 219 |
| ED- Nic Scourton- Texas A&M | 198 |
| OG- Donovan Jackson- Ohio State | 179 |
| OT- Cameron Williams- Texas | 156 |
| ED- James Pearce- Tennessee | 145 |
| TE- Colston Loveland- Michigan | 123 |
| LB- Jalon Walker- Georgia | 103 |
| S- Malaki Starks- Georgia | 97 |
| WR- Tetairoa McMillan- Arizona | 41 |
| S- Xavier Watts- Notre Dame | 29 |
| WR- Luther Burden III- Missouri | 7 |
Here are some notes from the PFN simulations:
- D-Line showed up more than anything. 1,993 of the picks were on the D-Line, 991 Edge rushers, and 1,002 DTS
- AT 703, O Line was the 2nd most popular posistion
- LBs showed up 341 times
- Safeties showed up 126 times
- It projected the Eagles to trade out of the 1st round 178 times
- They traded up 236 times
- PFN was the only of the 3 sites that picked a LB for the Eagles (Jalon Walker and Jihad Campbell showed up 341 times)
- PFN was also the only of the 3 sites to mock Tetairoa McMillan to them
- Pro Football Network has been the most accurate of the 3 sites. It nailed the Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter picks, mocked Cooper Dejean the most times, and it even predicted the Eagles would draft Nolan Smith with their other 1st round pick in 2023.
Pro Football Focus
| PFF | |
| Player | Times Drafted |
| DT- Derrick Harmon- Oregon | 451 |
| ED-Donovan Ezeiruaku- BC | 432 |
| DT- Walter Nolen- Ole Miss | 469 |
| DT- Darius Alexander-Toledo | 387 |
| OT- Josh Connerly Jr- Oregon | 378 |
| ED- Nic Scourton- Texas A&M | 287 |
| OG- Grey Zabel- ND State | 232 |
| CB- Maxwell Hairston- Kentucky | 176 |
| ED- James Pearce- Tennessee | 143 |
| Dt- TJ Sanders- South Carolina | 129 |
| TE- Colston Loveland- Michigan | 139 |
| WR- Jayden Higgens- Arizona | 27 |
| Cb- Azareye'h Thomas- FSU | 17 |
| WR- Luther Burden III- Missouri | 9 |
| RB- Omarion Hampton- UNC | 6 |
| S- Malaki Starks- Georgia | 51 |
Here are some notes from the PFF simulations:
- Once again, D-Line was by far the most popular pick, 1,436 DTs, and 862 Edge Rushers, for 2,298 total. Over a 3rd of the picks were Defensive Linemen.
- O-Linemen showed up 610 times, but only 2 different O-Linemen showed up, the fewest of any of the sites
- PFF had the fewest unique predictions overall, with 16 different players showing up.
- PFF has been the least accurate of the 3 sites. Getting the pick wrong in each of the last 3 drafts, and not mocking Jalen Carter to the Eagles at all in 2023
- PFF was the only site that mocked Jayden Higgins to the Eagles
ESPN
| ESPN | |
| Player | Times Drafted |
| S- Malaki Starks- Georgia | 370 |
| ED- Donovan Ezeiruaku | 369 |
| OG- Grey Zabel- NDSU | 262 |
| CB- Azareye'h Thomas- FSU | 250 |
| CB- Trey Amos- CB- Ole Miss | 201 |
| ED- James Pearce Jr.- Tenn | 191 |
| WR- Emeka Egbuka- Ohio State | 161 |
| CB- Maxwell Hairston- Kentucky | 151 |
| OG- Donovan Jackson- Ohio State | 150 |
| S- Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina | 147 |
| OG- Tyler Booker- Bama | 142 |
| DT-Walter Nolen- Ole Miss | 134 |
| OT- Josh Conerly Jr.- Oregon | 123 |
| OT- Josh Simmons- Ohio State | 111 |
| CB- Benjamin Morrison- Kentucky | 91 |
| DT- Darius Alexander- Toldeo | 86 |
| WR- Luther Burden III Missouri | 81 |
| ED- Mike Green- Marshall | 81 |
| DT- Keneth Grant- Michigan | 67 |
| DT- Omarr Norman-Lott- Tennessee | 61 |
| ED- Shemar Stewart- Texas A&M | 40 |
| CB- Shavon Revel Jr.- East Carolina | 33 |
| RB- Omarion Hampton- UNC | 31 |
Here are some notes from the PFF simulations:
- Malaki Starks showed up only 148 times total on the other 2 sites, but was the most popular pick for ESPN
- Stark's 370 picks by ESPN is more than the rest of the Safeties combined in the total 10,000 simulations (324)
- ESPN had the most unique players drafted with 23
- ESPN was the only site that mocked Trey Amos, Nick Emmanwori, Tyler Booker, Josh Simmons, Benjamin Morrison, Kenneth Grant, Omarr Norman-Lott, and Shavon Revel Jr to the Eagles
- Defensive Linemen showed up only 995 times, by far the least of the 3 sites.
Full Results
| ED- Donovan Ezeiruaku- BC | 1230 |
| DT-Walter Nolen- Ole Miss | 965 |
| OG- Grey Zabel- NDSU | 862 |
| DT- Derrick Harmon- Oregon | 830 |
| S- Malaki Starks- Georgia | 518 |
| OT- Josh Connerly Jr- Oregon | 501 |
| ED- Nic Scourton- Texas A&M | 485 |
| ED- James Pearce- Tennessee | 479 |
| DT- Darius Alexander-Toledo | 473 |
| OG- Donovan Jackson- Ohio State | 329 |
| CB- Maxwell Hairston- Kentucky | 327 |
| ED- Mike Green- Marshall | 300 |
| Cb- Azareye'h Thomas- FSU | 267 |
| TE- Colston Loveland- Michigan | 262 |
| DT- Tyleik Williams- Ohio State | 261 |
| LB- Jihad Campbell- Bama | 238 |
| CB- Trey Amos- CB | 201 |
| WR- Emeka Egbuka- Ohio State | 161 |
| OT- Cameron Williams- Texas | 156 |
| S- Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina | 147 |
| OG- Tyler Booker- Bama | 142 |
| Dt- TJ Sanders- South Carolina | 129 |
| OT- Josh Simmons- Ohio State | 111 |
| LB- Jalon Walker- Georgia | 103 |
| WR- Luther Burden III- Missouri | 97 |
| CB- Benjamin Morrison- Kentucky | 91 |
| DT- Keneth Grant- Michigan | 67 |
| DT- Omarr Norman-Lott- Tennessee | 61 |
| WR- Tetairoa McMillan- Arizona | 41 |
| ED- Shemar Stewart- Texas A&M | 40 |
| RB- Omarion Hampton- UNC | 37 |
| CB- Shavon Revel Jr.- East Carolina | 33 |
| S- Xavier Watts- Notre Dame | 29 |
| WR- Jayden Higgens- Arizona | 27 |
- Donovan Ezeiruaku was either 1st or 2nd on all 3 sites, and hence showed up almost 300 more times than anyone else
- Despite Ezeiruaku showing up the most, DT was the most common pick, with 2,786 DTs being taken compared to 2,534 Edge Rushers.
- D-Linemen in general were picked 5,320 times, making up 53.2% of the total selections
- O-Linemen were 2nd, with 1,333 Guards, and 768 tackles, being taken for a total of 2,101 picks (21%)
- Of the positions that had at least a single pick, RB was the least common selection, showing up only 37 times.
- TE showed up 262 times, and Colston Loveland was the only TE taken.
- Donovan Ezeiruaku, Grey Zabel, Walter Nolen, James Pearce, Malaki Starks, and Luther Burden III showed up at least once on all 3 sites.
So if you believe the last 3 of these simulations getting the pick right is not a coincidence, Ezeiruaku will be the pick.
It makes a ton of sense for the Eagles. They need an edge rusher, and Ezeiruaku might be the best available when the Eagles are on the board.
After Mike Green, he's the most productive Edge in the draft. Ezeiruaku racked up 16 sacks and 60 pressures last season. The traits are there, too, suggesting the production is no fluke. Plus, he is a local kid, hailing from Williamstown, NJ.
One of my favorite stories about him comes from when he was playing peewee sports. He started out playing Basketball. But because of how aggressive he was, the coach suggested Football might be the better sport for him.
“I was really aggressive playing basketball, and he recommended to my dad that I should try out football because of how aggressive I was."- Donovan Ezeiruaku
Something tells me Eagles fans would love him. He also used to try and coach up his teammates in Peewee Football. Imagine seeing a 9-year-old taking another kids aside to try and coach him up. That was Donovan.
If this simulation comes true like the last 3 came true, it will be a tremendous 1st night for the Eagles.
