The 2024 Phillies Went From Being Standouts To Just One Of The Crowd
Just a prelude here, if this hurts your feelings get over it. You’re not a better fan or analyst because you repeat the party line.
The 2024 Phillies were like hearing my friends talk about Game of Thrones. They crashed onto the scene as the most exciting product out there. At some point, they lost their way. Dynamic domination of opponents brought on complacency. Maybe they got off to such a hot start that they realized in June they could play .500 ball and still grab that post season berth.
They would not be the first team to start hot, cool off for a long period of time and then regroup in time to grab a championship. Will this be their fate? Conflicting opinions can create solid arguments either way.
From July 3rd the Phillies were just a .500 team
That’s way too long to play mediocre baseball. I’d use injuries as an excuse, but there are so many other National League contenders that would make a stronger case. If anyone had told me on July 1st that the Phillies would finish within just a couple games of almost every other contender in both leagues, I’d have laughed them out of the studio. Unfortunately, the joke is on me. Playing with no sense of urgency, striking out way too much and getting blown out routinely is the storyline of the past three months.
Were the other National League post season teams actually better?
In fact, they all were! The Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks have ALL played better. Does this mean anything to you? If it doesn’t then I believe you are just spinning things as a homer. It’s been three months and that is hardly a small sample size. Does it preclude you from having a chance to win in October? No! Is it a fact that needs to at least be considered as very worrisome? Oh yeah.
You want some good news about the 2024 Phillies?
I wanted to leave you with a very positive message. In the past week I’ve conversed with some front office executives, major league players and broadcasters with no affiliation to the Phillies. Now this was a random sample and it accounts for just five opinions, but it was unanimous that the Phillies were the favorites to win the World Series by all of them.
I offered my thoughts on how frustrating the last three months have been after their torrid start. It was best presented to me in this statement; “no team is better prepared to go 11-8 than the Phillies”.
I was told that my expectations were too high and that I shouldn’t have as many doubts. It doesn’t take you winning 11 in a row, just 11 of 19 potential games. They told me when you have five solid bullpen arms to step in after their top three starters it is a recipe for success.
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National League Playoff Race
Clinching the National League East and the first-round bye doesn’t mean the remainder of the regular season has no consequence. The Phillies still have incentives to earn the best record in baseball to secure home field advantage throughout Red October, but at what cost?
“I’ve said all along, the two biggest things really for me are winning the division and getting the bye. Then if we get home field throughout, that’s a bonus, but I won’t put players in danger to get that.” -Rob Thomson
Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola will start the final three regular season games against the Washington Nationals, respectively. It’s possible that minimally shorter outings will serve them better before entering Red October as key pieces to a potential World Series run.
The Los Angeles Dodgers face the last-place Colorado Rockies this weekend. The Phillies own the tiebreaker over the assumed NL West champions.
The New York Yankees also have a good chance to finish with the best MLB record to steal home field advantage in a potential World Series. They own the tiebreaker over the Phillies.
The Phillies will naturally emphasize the Red October home field advantage as a priority, but the praise of their own fan base doesn’t necessarily indicate a top priority and a mindset that home field advantage will play a determining factor in playoff games.
Thomson has also made recent managerial decisions with an apparent eye on some situational tests for the postseason rather than a singular concentration on winning to earn the top seed.
Expect to see Thomson prioritize setting his players up best for the postseason this weekend in Washington with a secondary goal of finishing with the best record in baseball.
Austin Hays Forces Outfield Lineup Questions
A kidney infection had sidelined Austin Hays for over three weeks, but the trade deadline acquisition returned on Tuesday.
Hays hit .254 with a .649 OPS in 19 games before his IL stint began the first week of September. His 29.4% hard hit rate in the short run with the Phillies fell way short of his numbers at the peak of his performance with the Baltimore Orioles.
Dave Dombrowski landed Hays for a package that included Seranthony Dominguez to bolster the outfield offense. While the Phillies didn’t see a significant boost instantly, Hays has the opportunity to improve his conditioning through the remainder of the regular season and reach a better offensive rhythm.
Will he start in left field during the MLB Playoffs?
Rob Thomson has some decisions to make. He must balance the best defensive alignment with the highest offensive upside and consider handedness based on pitching matchups.
Lefty Brandon Marsh sits in the third percentile of MLB players in strikeout rate. He’s probably not suited well to start in center field against a left-handed starting pitcher in a lineup that needs better contact.
Righty Johan Rojas brings a good glove to center field and speed on the basepaths. Thomson might ask him to play a role as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, and the Phillies skipper could also elect for better starting defense and sit Marsh in favor of Rojas.
Both outfielders will earn some favor with their manager if they’re able to handle situational baseball that enables the lineup’s top sluggers to carry the Phillies during the postseason.
“There’s certain guys that we’ve handpicked that we’ve made sure they get extra work on the bunting because we’re coming into potentially low-scoring games where every run is huge. Sometimes, you’ve got to manufacture them against good pitching.” -Rob Thomson
Hays, Marsh, and Rojas have all shown varying levels of offensive deficiency in 2024. Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens have brought some pop to the lineup in spot starts this season. Any playoff slump could easily force Thomson’s hand to start one of the two reserves.
The Phillies will likely use different combinations in left field and center field in their starting lineups. Also expect Thomson to utilize bench players, especially in the later innings, if he feels a move can showcase one player’s particular skill.
Earlier this season, he openly questioned his own decision not to pinch hit for Rojas in Game 7 of the NLCS in 2023. Don’t expect him to waive a similar opportunity in 2024.
