Sirianni and Hurts Can Guide Eagles To A Week 4 Win

Three games into the season I’m 2-1 picking the outcome of the Eagles games and I’m an impressive 3-0 against the spread. My picks overall as offered on the Kincade and Salciunas show every Friday are 8-4 on the young season. I’d expect the floor to drop out soon, so stay with me while I’m hot!

Coming off of the battle in New Orleans, I believe that game has the feel of one that changes the direction of a season. Now for the part that will annoy you, it changed the season despite the outcome of this Sunday’s game in Tampa Bay. Win or lose, I am confident that things are rounding into shape. The most glaring issues feel better to me than they did 3 weeks ago!

The pass rush needs to be disruptive. Sacks are a very gaudy figure that many tout as the indicator of a great pass rush. I’d disagree slightly on that assessment. Yes, everyone loves to see you get the opposing QB on the ground, but being an annoyance and getting a QB off their spot or flushed from the pocket can be just as effective.

Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter need to find more Sundays like their visit to the Bayou. I think we just saw the beginning of the unleashing of the Dawgs! Mayfield can scramble, but he will be annoyed and hopefully forced into a turnover or two.

Dare I say that the secondary might be a team strength? It might be a tad premature, but the overhaul of this defense and its youth movement is off to a great start. We have now seen three games where the secondary played strong and gave their team a chance to win, against three quarterbacks that can throw the ball vertically. Mitchell has looked steady and Slay has been great.

I don’t think Baker Mayfield will be in a position to pick them apart. I do expect him to have the best passing day we have seen so far against the Birds.

The Buccaneers rush defense is near the bottom of the league. Whether the Eagles will find similar success will depend on if Kellen Moore can scheme enough of the Dotson and Goedert opportunities open. I’m thinking we see more chances for Kenneth Gainwell to make an impact in the passing game this Sunday. Bottom line is that Tampa will be gashed in the running game by Barkley if enough respect can be demanded by the Eagles in the short and intermediate passing game.

On Thursdays show I made a bold statement. If the game ends before 4pm on Sunday, I guarantee that the Eagles have come out victorious. The running game bleeding clock and long, time of possession killing drives are my number one necessity to victory. One thing I know is that the Eagles offense has been able to create 7 minute plus drives frequently under Nick Sirianni. The shorter the game, the better chance the Birds fly into the bye week at 3-1.

I’m expecting that the Eagles will manage to score more points this week than they have in the previous two weeks. I know that sounds crazy with all of the injuries they face, but Saquon will find his way to another 100 yard rushing day and soften things up for the short passing game to bleed clock and frustrate the Buccaneers. The defense will be fresher on the humid Florida stage and deliver their most sacks of the season and force at least one turnover.

I’ll say Eagles 27 - Buccaneers 17

The Eagles managed to win in week 3. It was the 1st game this season where they were underdogs and the first game where they were in hostile territory. Very few people thought the Eagles could go down to New Orleans and win. The Saints offense was flying high, and the Eagles defense had been questionable at best.

Turns out, the defense gave one of the best performances we saw from any defense this season. They held a team averaging over 40 points per game to just 12. They held a team averaging over 400 yards per game to under 300. Jalen Carter was a monster, and Jordan Davis looked great too. It was a tremendous performance out of almost the whole defense, that helped them get to 2-1 despite the offense struggling to get on the scoreboard.

Related: Eagles Defense Makes A Statement In New Orleans

But it all came at a cost. DeVonta Smith, Britain Covey, Lane Johnson, Mekhi Becton, and Darius Slay all left with injuries. Covey is already on the IR, and Smith and Johnson are recovering from concussions. All of that to go with AJ Brown already missing two games. Meaning the Eagles could be very thin in week 4. They thankfully have an early bye week, but they need to get their first, ideally as a 3-1 team.

But for them to do that? Who needs to step up? Which players are the most important for the Eagles to leave Tampa Bay with a win? Which still struggling players need to step up? Who needs to continue to play at a high level?

From Jalen Carter to Jahan Dotson, these players will need to show up in week 4 if they are going to have a 3-1 record going into the bye.

Jalen Hurts does not have a great history vs the Bucs. The Todd Bowles defense has confounded him, leading to blowouts in 3 of the 4 games, including twice in the playoffs. His TD-INT ratio against them is 4 to 5. He did beat them in the regular season last year, but then had his worst game of the year against them in the Wild Card Round.

Part of his problem has been how Bowles loves to blitz. Last year in particular, Hurts struggled vs the blitz. But it is unfair to put all of that on him. The coaching staff did not give him the tools to combat the blitz. This year, he has been much better vs the blitz. They gave him the tools to combat it, including actually having Hot Routes. He is calling out the blitzes himself, and doing a good job of it. His completion rate is over 70%, and he averages 7.2 yards per attempt when blitzed this season. Maybe that will help change his history vs this team.

It's better for their sake, with so many guys out, he is going to need to be special for them to go into the bye week 3-1. And you can expect Bowles to blitz heavily, it is what he does.

Carter was a monster in week 2. Maybe the best defender in the league, despite not getting a sack. He was blowing up the line every play and stopping the run every play. The problem is they will need that from him every game. Because they are getting nothing from the Edge Rushers. If Carter has an off game, the defense will have an off game.

We saw that in the first 2 games of the season. He was average in those games, and the defense was average because of that. Is that fair to put it all on him? Maybe not. But he is the star of the defense. It will go as he goes. Until Bryce Huff starts playing like he is supposed to, the defense will need Carter to play like an All-Pro every week.

Maybe he doesn't need to be as good as he was vs the Saints. But he needs to be a dominant force every week.

The first two guys on this list we know have the potential to be great. Do we know that about Huff? He had one good season, as a part-time player. Before that he was a UDFA with hardly any production to his name. He has given you nothing this season, literally. He has 0 stats. He gets pushed back on every play.

In week 3 he hardly saw the field. He played on just over 30% of the snaps. That can't last though. As great as Brandon Graham looks, I am not sure if a 36-year-old can keep playing 60% of the snaps. Fangio can say what he wants about staggering those snaps, but eventually, that will wear both him and Josh Sweat down. Huff and Smith have to find a way to contribute, so they can get on the field more. And they need to get more pressure off the edge.

It should be on the $51 million man to do that. He is supposed to be the guy who replaces Haason Reddick, but Reddick, who hasn't played yet, has the same impact on his team that Huff has had in Philly.

Like Carter, Goedert had the best game of his career in week 3. Also like Carter, he may need to do it again. The Eagles will be lacking a lot of their best weapons in Tampa. They still have Saquon, but you can bet with the injuries, the Bucs will focus on stopping the run and making Hurts beat them. Goedert is the best healthy weapon they have left in the passing game. He doesn't need 170 yards, but he needs to be great again.

Moore should find a way to get him in space again this week. Most of Goedert's yard came after the catch. They designed plays to get him in open space, and then let him do what he does best, run after the catch. His 61-yard catch and run that set up the game-winner was a 4-yard pass, and then he ran for 47 more. That might be the best way to use him, and we will need to see more of it if they are going to come back to Philly with a  3-1 record.

Usually, when Lane Johnson comes out, it means the Eagles are going to lose. They are 14-22 since drafting Lane in games he misses. But he came out of the Saints game fairly early, and his replacement Fred Johnson held down the fort. In fact, they lost the whole right side of their line, with Becton also leaving the game, but Fred Johnson and Tyler Steen looked good in there. They kept Hurts clean and paved the way for Barkley. It will be on them to do it again this week.

When the Eagles traded for Dotson, we thought it was the perfect fit. But 3 games in, his stats sheet is only slightly more impressive than Bryce Huff's. 3 catches for 14 yards. Week 1 you can give him the excuse that he was still new to the team. That won't fly anymore. AJ Brown missed 2 games, and Dotson still made no impact.

To his credit, he has done a couple of things that don't show up in the stat sheet. He ran a great route vs the Saints, that shook Goedert loose, and let him get so wide open on that 61-yard catch at the end of the game. But they didn't trade a 3rd round pick for him to help other guys produce, nor did they do it for him to block. They thought they were getting a true WR3.

This has to be the week he does it. No more excuses, no more patience. Make some plays. Show something. If it is another 1 catch game for him, it will be time to talk about if they made a mistake trading for him.