Is Cristopher Sanchez As Bad On The Road As The Numbers Suggest?
Who should start game 2 for the Phillies, Aaron Nola, or Cristopher Sanchez? A debate has raged in Philly for a few weeks. Now that they have the bye week secured, and can set up their rotation exactly how they want, it has really taken off.
Some say let Nola start because he is more proven and has done it in the past. Some say let Sanchez start because he has better numbers this season. Others like the idea of breaking up the righties and lefties in the rotation.
But another factor in the debate is the wild Home/Road Splits for Cristopher Sanchez. At Citizens Bank Park this season, he has a sparkling 2.21 ERA to go with a 0.97 WHIP over 17 starts. His ERA bloats to 5.02, and his WHIP to 1.66, over 14 starts everywhere else.
Those numbers are pretty staggering. Without any further context, they make a convincing case that Sanchez struggles on the road, and dominates at home. So why wouldn’t you want to play to his strengths and let him make his 1st start at home? Aaron Nola’s 3.79 Road ERA would presumably give you a much better chance in game 3, wouldn’t it?
On paper, yes. But I was curious just how accurate of a picture that 5.02 ERA painted. Is he actually that bad on the road, or is it being inflated by a few bad starts? So I dug deeper, going game by game for both Nola and Sanchez, to see if the disparity is as bad as the numbers make it seem.
Cristopher Sanchez Plaqued By Two Bad Starts
Sanchez has 2 starts this season where he gave up 7 or more runs. Both of those came on the road. The DBacks in August, and the Cubs in July.
Take those away, his ERA drops from 5.02 to 3.71. In 7 of his 14 starts on the road, he allowed 2 or fewer runs. In only 4 of them, did he allow 4 or more runs. Compare that to Nola, and he also has given up 4 or more runs in 4 road starts. He gave up 2 or fewer runs in 8 of his 15 road starts.
It kind of feels like Sanchez had two awful starts, but otherwise has been pretty ok on the road. He is certainly better at home. But the splits may be a bit misleading in terms of his ERA. The fact that his splits went the opposite way last year tells you that maybe these splits carry less weight than we would think.
But there is another trend I found with Sanchez on the road that suggests he does have some problems. And unlike with the ERA, you can’t erase it just by taking away the 2 worst starts.
Sanchez A Walk Machine On The Road
At home, Sanchez hardly ever walks people. He has just 17 BBs in 110 innings at home. Only 1.51 walks per 9 innings. That is compared to 27 walks in 71.2 innings on the road. A big jump up to 3.71 walks per 9 innings.
He has walked at least 2 people in 8 of his 14 road starts, as compared to just 3 times in his 17 home starts. He has walked at least 3 people 5 times on the road, compared to just once at home.
That is not just a few bad games inflating his stats, it is a pattern. A concerning pattern. It is a massive reason why his WHIP is so much higher on the road. And it is why he goes from 6.47 innings per game at home, to only 5.12 innings per game on the road.
He has had to work much harder and had to pitch out of tougher situations on the road. So right after we talk about his ERA maybe not being as bad as we think it is on the road, there might actually be potential for it to be worse. Maybe a bit better than the 5.02 ERA he has, but worse than the 3.71 we got by taking away his 2 worst starts.
The walk rate is a real problem for him, and unlike the ERA issue, it is not one he shares with Aaron Nola. Nola’s walk rate is slightly higher on the road, you would find that is the case for most pitchers most likely. But the jump is way less drastic. From 2.25 at home to 2.39 on the road. That is a small enough of a difference to write it off as a coincidence. But you can’t just write off a jump of over 2 walks per 9 innings.
So What Do We Take Away From All This?
The ERA may not tell the full picture, but he does have real problems on the road, even when you take away his 2 worst outings. There is something about pitching at home that makes Sanchez more comfortable.
But should they base their whole post-season plans around that? I don’t know. Rob Thomson certainly didn’t sound like he was going to factor it into his decision-making, but he is not exactly always forthright with the media. He is definitely from the camp of say less when a microphone is in his face.
I still think they go with what they know in game 2, which is Nola. Nola has earned it, and Nola has proven it, whereas Sanchez has just 1 playoff start, where they only let him go 3 innings. Sanchez’s last few road starts have been good, in some cases even very good. There is something to the walk issue, but not enough to upend all of your playoff plans.
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