Seeding vs. Health: How Will Phillies Prioritize NL Playoff Race?
The Phillies will make the MLB Playoffs for the third consecutive season. It’s seemed like a foregone conclusion since May. Where will they land in the National League playoff race? That’s still to be determined.
While extreme circumstances could still shake up the NL East or the overall seeding, the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers will likely compete for the best record in baseball and home field advantage throughout the postseason.
Thomson repeatedly gives due credit to the Red October crowd ready to rock Citizens Bank Park. However, he’ll also balance resting an ailing lineup and aligning his pitching staff to maximize availability in the playoffs.
Phillies Facing Injury Concerns
The third-year skipper will put together a lineup without Alec Bohm, Austin Hays, and Edmundo Sosa during short-term IL stints in the coming days. Injuries to J.T. Realmuto and Rafael Marchan also limit his short-term lineup options.
Bryce Harper has also made the headlines with a nagging injury that’s potentially limiting his home run power.
“It’s on a case-to-case basis as far as the (ways we’re handling) health is concerned. Our number one goal is to win games. We’re not holding back.” -Rob Thomson
Key members of the pitching staff might also work with limited availability after racking up innings throughout a long regular season.
Thomson even looked like he’d use Jose Ruiz in the 10th inning of Monday’s victory if the Phillies hadn’t avoided extras with a walk-off win in the ninth. Workhorse reliever Matt Strahm was sitting in the bullpen for his fourth full day of rest.
NL Playoff Race
Is earning the top seed the most important thing here? It’s unlikely that one American League team will both overtake the best record in baseball and advance to the World Series. An NL team is much more likely to host the Fall Classic.
If Los Angeles finished with the best MLB record, the Phillies would potentially have to travel to Dodger Stadium for Games 1, 2, 6, and 7 of a seven-game NLCS.
That means a slight disadvantage in only one particular playoff permutation.
The 2022 and 2023 playoffs fell into place similarly for the Phillies. They coincidentally faced the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS twice and advanced to the NLCS against an NL West wild card team that had upset the division champion Dodgers.
The MLB playoff bracket doesn’t separate divisions in each league. The same general path isn’t likely to unfold geographically in 2024. Recent MLB postseason history has also taught us that the top two seeds aren’t locks for the league championship series.
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It’s more likely that a Phillies-Dodgers NLCS matchup doesn’t occur.
Competitive baseball in a three-game series in Milwaukee from September 16-18 can help the Phillies earn the bye, which is a higher priority than home field advantage. If they survive the road set, don’t expect them to exhaust energy competing with the Dodgers.
Consistent Messaging
The Phillies have kept their eyes on Red October throughout the 2024 season, so don’t count on any expected playoff contributors to take on heavy workloads in the final five series of the regular season.
No team should hear a message from the manager that upcoming games aren’t important. However, cautious treatment of an ailing roster would align with the approach Rob Thomson, Dave Dombrowski, and the entire organization have taken in a season with World Series aspirations.
Thomson himself pointed to health as his biggest concern all the way back on June 5 while his club boasted a 44-19 record. The Phillies handled injury situations with J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez with particular caution after his comments.
“Health. I’m always worried about health. Players win games, and they’ve got to be on the field to be able to do it.” -Rob Thomson (June 5)
He reiterated the same message about injuries as his primary concern before the Phillies began their six-game homestand on Monday.
The Dodgers, according to Matt Gelb, have also discussed concerns about how a lack of competitive baseball in September in 2022 and 2023 hurt their momentum before disappointing playoff losses.
Earning home field advantage wouldn’t solve LA’s starting pitching issues. A rested Phillies rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez won’t fear the Dodgers in any venue.
Rob Thomson, Bryce Harper, and anyone in the Phillies organization might not publicly downplay the NL playoff race. However, don’t be surprised if seeding isn’t the top priority for the remainder of the 2024 season.
