An Overlooked Root Of A Fading Phillies Identity
The MLB All-Star Break provided the opportunity to evaluate the league’s best teams and their World Series odds. The Philadelphia Phillies looked as threatening as anyone largely because of their dominant starting pitchers.
However, as Ricky Bottalico pointed out, it’s tough for viewers to even recognize the team’s identity during a brutal slump out of the mid-July break.
Phillies Starting Pitching
Dave Dombrowski spoke in May about the organization’s emphasis on a fast start to the 2024 season after underwhelming starts in 2022 and 2023. He mentioned the need for his starting pitchers to go deeper into games in the beginning months of the season to carry the Phillies to an NL East lead.
An identity formed quickly. The rotation reached the All-Star Break first in ERA and opponent average and second in strikeouts and WHIP. They also threw the second most innings of any MLB starting staff, and the Phillies were the only team with at least three complete games.
Related Content: 97.5 The Fanatic Phillies Notebook: The Kyle Schwarber Series
It looked like the “Four Aces” of 2011 all over again. Until it didn’t. The Phillies have stumbled to a 7-15 record out of the break. Their 4.63 starter’s ERA ranks 18th in the majors during that span.
Jayson Stark even reported on The Best Show Ever that Dombrowski made a serious push to acquire Garrett Crochet ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline, an indicator that the long-time executive isn’t satisfied with his starting pitching.
A brutal bullpen slump, a lack of timely hitting, and poor defense have all contributed. It’s also important for frustrated fans to balance dissatisfaction for August performance with panic about the outlook on Red October.
However, the identity of the Phillies has paled with a slumping staff of starting pitchers who must regain their footing if they hope to meet their World Series aspirations.
Nola, Sanchez Underwhelming
The depth of the staff once looked like its greatest strength. The Phillies could throw four starters at their opponents who were all capable of pitching at the top of a legitimate MLB rotation.
However, two cogs in the wheel have failed to validate the high compliments of the staff’s depth.
Rob Thomson dubbed Aaron Nola “Mr. Consistency” after the righty defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 11.
The 10-year veteran has since shown a frustrating tendency to allow big hits at inopportune moments in the way that’s frustrated the Philadelphia fan base throughout his big league career.
Ranger Suarez is on the shelf. Taijuan Walker hasn’t eaten up innings at the back of the rotation. Has Nola picked up the slack? The Phillies are 0-5 in his starts since Thomson coined the “Mr. Consistency” moniker. He’s surrendered a .327 opponent batting average and a .980 OPS on his way to a 4.55 ERA.
Has Cristopher Sanchez stepped into a role at the top of the rotation during Nola’s slump?
The 27-year-old broke out with an outstanding first half of the season. His change-up had developed into his best pitch. He reached higher velocities on his fastball and his sinker that helped him win the NL Pitcher of the Month honors for June.
His numbers have quickly plummeted.
Zack Wheeler: An Unquestioned Ace?
The Phillies have something most MLB teams, and even most World Series contenders, don’t. Zack Wheeler pitched eight shutout innings in a Sunday getaway victory against the Seattle Mariners on August 4.
His performance should inspire confidence for nervous Phillies fans who didn’t have the ace’s 1.95 ERA in five 2023 playoff games at the top of their minds.
Wheeler didn’t provide the performance the Phillies looked for in a brutal morale drop on July 29 against the New York Yankees. He’s thrown up some other clunkers in 2024, but he’s still a legitimate National League Cy Young contender.
The hard-throwing righty finished the 2023 season with a 3.61 ERA that fell short of his previous numbers with the Phillies. However, he inspired plenty of confidence as the playoff Game 1 starter with dominant performances sandwiching some clunkers last season too. A few bad days for Zack Wheeler are the least of the staff’s worries.
When Will Ranger Suarez Return?
Things have changed since Ranger Suarez appeared frustrated after he failed to outduel Tarik Skubal in a matchup of Cy Young hopefuls on June 25.
The Venezuelan lefty owned a 1.83 ERA after his sixteenth start in 2024. He’d allowed two or fewer earned runs in each start excluding a so-so outing at Coors Field on May 26.
All of a sudden, he hit a wall. Suarez allowed three or more earned runs in each of his four starts since.
- vs. Miami Marlins (6/30)- 4 ⅔ IP, 6 ER, 10 H
- vs. Atlanta Braves (7/6)- 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H
- vs. Oakland Athletics (7/12)- 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H
- vs. Minnesota Twins (7/22)- 5 ⅓ IP, 3 ER, 7 H
He labored through a tough outing on July 12 that made it obvious he needed a breather. Suarez withdrew from the MLB All-Star Game despite his first career selection.
When the Phillies decided to delay his first start after the All-Star Break, the idea of caution to prevent a cumulative fatigue setting in by the playoffs seemed logical.
However, the Phillies then placed arguably the top starting pitcher in the NL during the first half of the season on the IL with back soreness on July 27. Thomson initially set a target for him to return during the Arizona Diamondbacks series from August 8-11.
It didn’t happen. There might’ve been initial concerns about his inning totals, but a return with seven weeks remaining in the regular season would land the seventh-year pro right in the same range as his career high 155 ⅓ innings set in 2022.
The third-year manager again failed to set a definitive timeline after Suarez threw at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday. His repeated use of the word “potentially” sounded like hopeful optimism, but the extended injury timeline isn’t very encouraging.
Phillies Outlook
Ranger Suarez might be the missing puzzle piece for a starting rotation that’s lost the dominant rhythm they found during the first half of 2024.
A healthy return could slot him behind the expected ace Zack Wheeler in time for Red October. Suarez’s availability shouldn’t theoretically affect the performance of Nola and Sanchez, but the two respective healthy starters have enough talent to correct recent weaknesses in the remaining seven weeks of the regular season.
Thomson also acknowledged the possibility of a six-man rotation with Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Sanchez, Taijuan Walker, and Tyler Phillips.
While the fifth and sixth starters wouldn’t strike fear into opponents with reputations like Wheeler or Nola, the Phillies expect that Walker and Phillips can provide the padding needed to line up their top four starting pitchers ideally before the playoffs begin.
If their timeline plays out correctly, they’re likely to help frustrated fans forget about a midsummer slump and avoid turning criticism into full panic entering Red October.
All stats as of the beginning of play on August 13
97.5 The Fanatic provides weekly news, analysis, and interviews about the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies season.
