Phillies Fans Should Prepare For 7 Weeks Of Drama
While the NL East lead is still quite comfortable and the teams trailing the Phillies are quite flawed, the door has been opened to huge drama down the stretch. The Braves and Mets don’t appear built for a hostile takeover of the division lead, but the best record in the National League is another matter.
The Dodgers and Brewers, once buried in the race for the top NL seed, are in striking distance of passing the Phillies. Here’s a silver lining to a potential tragic tale. As much as we all want the top seed with the supposed easiest path to the World Series, deep down you know it doesn’t matter. Don’t believe me? Here are a few reminders!
The Six Seed has been the magic spot to land in
Since the postseason field expanded to three wild cards in the 2022 season, the team with the hardest road to the Fall Classic has represented the National League. The Phillies advanced by winning three postseason series starting on the road. The Diamondbacks followed up that feat in 2023 by disposing of the Phillies in the NLCS. It is a small sample size, but it shows that home field means little in Fall baseball.
Citizens Bank Park hasn’t mattered when it mattered most
As much as we all love a Red October game in South Philly, when the Phillies had the cards stacked in their favor the last two years home field advantage meant little. Up 2-1 in the 2022 World Series with the following two games at home, the Phillies were no-hit, and then their bats continued to snooze losing Game 5. In 2023 only needing to win one game at home to advance back to the World Series they once again came up lane at home. The best crowd in baseball couldn’t help. It’s a great thing to be proud of, but the players don’t hit or win because of us.
The top-seeded teams in the NL have had little success
The Dodgers and Braves have both not benefitted from having the bye out of the wildcard round in 2022 and 2023. Los Angeles has been defeated by the Padres and Diamondbacks in subsequent seasons keeping them from advancing to the NLCS. Do I need remind you what happened to the Braves the past two Octobers? I believe all Phillies fans would like to have the chance to set up the NLDS rotation, but it has yet to show that it is any kind of benefit.
Am I hedging my bets on this team? No way!
I fully expect that the Phillies are going to stop the bleeding. I’m just not sure how the Dodgers and Brewers will finish their regular seasons. I do know that the Phillies won the season series vs the Dodgers 5-1 and swept the Brewers in earlier action. Yes, it’s been a terrible run. I also know that when the Phillies were playing .700 baseball those other teams were flailing themselves. Give up on believing in the 2024 Phillies at your own risk.
Watch Kincade & Salciunas on the 97.5 The Fanatic YouTube page for discussion about the latest breaking sports news in Philadelphia.
Grading Every Phillies Move At The MLB Trade Deadline
Acquiring Austin Hays
Phillies Get: Austin Hays
Baltimore Orioles Get: Seranthony Dominguez, Cristian PacheThe conversation about acquiring a right-handed hitting outfielder buzzed after Whit Merrifield faded out of favor.
Luis Robert Jr. and Randy Arozarena looked like prizes at the top of the market. Lane Thomas, Taylor Ward, and Mark Canha looked like solid lineup depth options to platoon with Brandon Marsh.
Dave Dombrowski acquired a player on very few people’s radar instead. Austin Hays fits the need as a righty with better offensive numbers than Johan Rojas.
“I’m going to give him (Hays) an opportunity to be an everyday guy. We’ll see what he does. I think with all the left-handed hitters they’ve got in Baltimore, he didn’t get a chance to play every single day… We think that may have taken away some of the numbers against right-handed pitching, so I’m going to let him go. This guy was an All-Star last year, so it’s going to cut into Rojas’ time a little bit.” -Rob Thomson
The Phillies surprisingly won’t start him in a platoon role. They’ll primarily use Brandon Marsh in center field with Rojas rotating in.
Hays has performed like an everyday player at times during his career, especially during the first half of 2023. He’ll have the opportunity to validate the Phillies’ belief that he was the odd man out of a loaded lineup for the Orioles.
The Orioles will conversely look at Seranthony Dominguez as the odd man out of a loaded Phillies bullpen. The trade between two contenders provides the opportunity to make both teams better immediately.
The decision by Dombrowski to include two roster players four days ahead of the deadline maintained his flexibility to use prospect capital to make an additional move. It didn’t drastically affect another team need either, as Dominguez had slipped out of favor in high-leverage relief innings.
Grade: B
Acquiring Carlos Estevez
Phillies Get: Carlos Estevez
Los Angeles Angels Get: Minor League Pitchers George Klassen, Sam AldegheriThe signs clearly indicated a move for a bullpen arm after the Phillies traded Dominguez. Dombrowski struck one day later to acquire a player he considers “one of the best relievers in baseball” over the past year.
Right-hander Carlos Estevez has saved 20 games in 23 opportunities in 2024. He posted a 2.38 ERA in 34 games, and his 0.74 WHIP ranks third among qualified MLB relievers. Estevez has walked just three batters all season (unintentionally).
“He’s got an above average fastball. He’s got a plus slider. He’s a bulldog on the mound. He’s a guy that has developed a change-up.” -Dave Dombrowski
The Phillies haven’t used a designated closer for most of Rob Thomson’s tenure. However, they’ll give Estevez the opportunity to pitch mostly in the ninth inning and prove that he deserves the ball in the most critical postseason spots.
Dombrowski himself admitted that the prospect package he sent to the Angels was steep for a rental who will hit free agency at the end of the season. However, the veteran executive set his mind on finding the best pitcher to help the Phillies win a World Series in 2024.
“The reality comes down, for me, we wanted the best guy to give us a chance we felt to win this year. There might’ve been some guys that maybe we could’ve gotten from (the benefit of) control but we didn’t think were as good (of) pitchers to win in the postseason… We just felt he’s the right guy.” -Dave Dombrowski
Despite his admission of a pricey return, Dombrowski still held onto the three prospects that dominated the conversation in a top-heavy system.
Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford unquestionably came up in discussions this July, but all three remain with the Phillies through the deadline.
Mark Feinsand pointed out that the lucrative price of the Tanner Scott trade and the heightened price of relievers after Dombrowski’s move on July 27 should color the perception.
Grade: B+
Acquiring Tanner Banks
Phillies Get: Tanner Banks
Chicago White Sox Get: Minor League Infielder William BergollaThe Phillies made a second bullpen addition by acquiring Tanner Banks from the Chicago White Sox with minutes remaining before the deadline.
The 32-year-old could play a role as left-handed specialist during Red October. He made his major league debut at age 30 in 2022, and he’s posted a 3.89 career ERA in 108 career appearances.
Lefties have hit just .184 against Banks in 2024 while righties have hit .308. The Phillies will have some opportunities for a lefty after the decision to move Gregory Soto.
William Bergolla was ranked 10th in the Phillies system before the trade.
Grade: B+
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Gregory Soto Traded
Phillies Get: Minor League Pitchers Seth Johnson and Moises Chace
Baltimore Orioles Get: Gregory SotoNews broke after the 6pm deadline that the Phillies dealt away Gregory Soto to join Dominguez and Craig Kimbrel in Baltimore.
Why didn’t it work out for Soto after coming over from the Detroit Tigers before the 2023 season?
“He pitched overall okay when you look at his numbers. We didn’t necessarily get him as a closer. I think a lot of times he envisions himself as a closer, which is fine… The way that we use our pen, I’m just not sure that it ever was a way that he felt comfortable in that regard.” -Dave Dombrowski
The bullpen remodel comes at a point in the season when the unit is collectively in a slump. Rob Thomson has emphasized the need to throw strikes, and Soto had some wild outings in high-leverage situations leading up to the trade.
He never slotted perfectly into a role in a bullpen that seems to collectively wrap their heads around the rotation Thomson uses.
Dombrowski projected Seth Johnson as a starting pitcher. The 25-year-old former first-round pick of the Tampa Bay Rays has worked his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Moises Chace is a 21-year-old “developing pitcher” in high A.
The two additions helped Dombrowski recoup the loss of prospect pitching depth, although he pointed out that the Phillies did not target pitchers over position players because of a specific need.
Johnson slots as Philadelphia’s 10th ranked prospect, and Chace comes in at 25th.
Grade: B-
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Subtractions
Seranthony Dominguez is the biggest immediate loss to the organization. The Dominican fireballer had spent his only six MLB seasons with the Phillies prior to the deal. He came up in 2018 and saved 16 games with flashes of shutdown closer potential.
Although Jeff Hoffman had seized the role as the primary right-handed relief option, Dominguez owned arguably the best postseason track record in the Phillies bullpen.
The self-admitted costly package of George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri won’t help Dombrowski’s trade deadline grade.
However, the two-time world champion ultimately kept the aggressive strategy of a World Series contender without trading any of the three prospects in a supposedly top-heavy farm system that dominated the headlines leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline.
Pache might not have lasted until the postseason on the active roster. Including him as a sweetener meant value that could’ve disappeared quickly after the deadline anyway.
Soto’s sudden departure wasn’t necessarily expected, but it does make sense given the trade for Tanner Banks as a potential left-handed specialist.
Grade: B-
Improving A World Series Outlook
Dave Dombrowski might’ve stopped at B-level additions, but he didn’t need A-level additions. A lineup with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and company has enough firepower to carry the Phillies to the World Series.
If the Phillies don’t score enough runs during the playoffs, don’t blame the lack of a big trade deadline acquisition.
“The superstars got to show up.” -Bryce Harper
Dombrowski instead added around the margins to offset the perceived weaknesses of a legitimate World Series contender. He maintained the aggressive championship attitude by selling high on minor league prospects and emphasizing 2024 rather than club control or building a farm system.
None of the moves blew anyone out of the water, but they all came together to make the roster look more formidable than it did a week before the deadline.
A bench bat or a depth starter might’ve provided more marginal upgrades, but they weren’t comparable priorities to the outfield bat and bullpen help.
The Phillies have as good of a chance to win the World Series as any MLB team. Austin Hays, Carlos Estevez, and Tanner Banks might not be the primary reasons for that, but they only add to a team that’s been focused on a singular goal all season.
“I think just the way we played earlier in the season, if we had stood pat, I think that’s a team that has a chance to win a world championship. We’ve just made ourselves better. I feel good about this club.” -Rob Thomson
Grade: A-
