The Diamondbacks Game 3 Starter Brandon Pfaadt Has a HR Problem

The Phillies go into game 3 with a 2-0 series lead. But they also go into it with a big pitching advantage. In one corner you have Ranger Suarez. A guy with a 1.16 ERA in the playoffs the past two seasons. In the other, you have Brandon Pfaadt. A guy who posted a 5.72 ERA in the regular season, although he did pitch very well against the Dodgers in his last start.

But there is one thing that the Phillies are very good at, and Pfaadt is very bad at, that makes the matchup advantage even worse for Arizona. Brandon Pfaadt gave up 22 HRs across 96 innings. 2.1 HRs per 9-innings. Lance Lynn led the league with 2.3 HRs allowed per nine innings. And he is going against a team that likes to hit the long ball. The Phillies already have 18 home runs this postseason, and 6 in this series. And after the All-Star Break, once Harper got his power back, the Phillies hit 121 HRs, more than any team except the Braves.

The Phillies have not faced Pfaadt before. His spot in the rotation never came up in either regular season series the two teams had. But it feels like the Phillies are tailor-made to put up runs on him. A right-handed pitcher with a problem of giving up long balls? Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper should have quite the day. All 5 of Nick Castellanos' HRs have come off righties, plus 3 of Turner's. The Phillies are already slugging .606 against right-handed pitchers. They killed the Diamondbacks Aces who are both righties. Now they get a rightie who has struggled with giving up HRs.

I am not going to give anyone gambling advice, because my own history with gambling tells me no one should copy my bets. But it might be another night with a lot of balls leaving the yard. Kyle Schwarber has 3 in this series, he may make it 4. Or he may join Castellanos as the 2nd player to ever have back to back 2 HR games in the playoffs. And the good news is the tickets to the game in Arizona are so cheap, that the people who catch the HR balls will make their money back.

The Phillies are in complete control of the NLCS. They are out to a 2-0 lead after their 10-0 win on Tuesday Night. And the news gets even better because they have a massive pitching advantage in game 3. The Diamondbacks are sending out Brandon Pfaadt, who had a 5.72 ERA. The Phillies meanwhile have Ranger Suarez on the mound. 

Ranger has a sparkling 1.16 ERA across 5 playoff starts and 2 appearances out of the pen in his career. As of now, only two starters retired with a better postseason ERA, Sandy Koufax, and Christy Mathewson. We know Ranger can hold his own in the playoffs. He shut down teams like the Braves and Astros. The moment is not going to be too big for him. 

Ranger surprisingly does not have a great history against the D Backs. His career ERA against them is 5.09. But a lot of the damage was done in two games. In 2019 he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings pit of the bullpen. And this season he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in what was his third start this season back from injury. In his other 7 appearances, his ERA vs the D Backs is 3.76. And when he got a second chance vs the D Backs this season he threw 7 shutout innings. 

At least so far, the Phillies have shut down this once dangerous D Backs lineup. They have scored just two runs, and their slash line is .129/.167/.194/.360. It continues a trend of this pitching staff just pitching extremely well in the playoffs. See what they did vs the Braves for further proof. Ranger Suarez will look to continue that trend on Thursday. But what are his numbers vs this D Backs lineup? Let's take a look. 

.250/.400/.500/.900

1 for 4, 0 HRs, 1 2B, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 K

.400/.471/.400/.871 

6 for 15, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 0 Ks 

.000/.500/.000/.500 

0 for 2, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 2 BBs, 1 K 

.333/.474/.600/1.074

5 for 15, 0 HRs, 2 2Bs, 1 2Bs, 1 RBI, 4 BBs, 3 Ks

Has Not Faced Ranger Suarez 

.000/.250/.000/.250 

0 for 3, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 1 BB, 1 K 

.000/.000/.000/.000 

0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K 

.286/.375/.857/1.232

2 for 7, 1 HR, 1 2B, 0 3Bs, 2 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 Ks

.500/.571/.500/1.071 

3 for 6, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 1 BB, 0 Ks 

.270/.365/.432/.797

20 for 74, 1 HR, 7 2Bs, 1 3B, 8 RBIs, 3 Ks