Don’t Overthink It, Just Do What Helps Win, Rob Thomson

It doesn't make sense. Batting Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot goes against pretty much every logical argument you can make of what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do and be. 

But sometimes, especially in the game of baseball, illogical is just a part of the game. While manager Rob Thomson has messed with the lineup for much of the season, he did settle in on the 1-2 punch of Bryson Stott and Trae Turner at the top of the order earlier this season. The problem there was Turner's unforeseen struggles at the plate, the likes of which he hadn't endured before. And his and Stott's inability to bunch hits didn't exactly define table setting. 

So in comes the month of June and Rob Thomson, with his team sitting at 25-30, toiled with the lineup again just a couple of days later. Schwarber took over the leadoff spot and the team promptly went on a 4-game winning streak. Does it make sense that a player with a .171 average, who strikes out more than twice as many times as he gets hits, who is a base clogger of other speedy teammates, be at the beginning of the order?

In Schwarber you have a home run hitter who led the National League last year with close to 50 dingers. So why in the hell would you lead off a player with that resume? Well, it's pretty simple. Because the team wins when the first batter for the Phillies is Schwarber. And, really, do you need a better reason? 

Again, it is inexplicable. But, last June when Rob Thomson decided to stick with Schwarber at the top of the order, the team won 65 of their 111 games. And now, since lifting Schwarber to the top of the lineup on June 2, the Phillies have won seven of nine. 

Schwarber's numbers haven't been exactly eye-popping, as he's gone 8-for-34 in the nine games he's led off, with four home runs, eight RBI, nine runs scored, and eight walks. But the most important number is this: The Phillies have gone 7-2 since Thomson elevated the husky outfield to the top of the order. 

Maybe it's just a feeling among the players and coaches of familiarity. Maybe it's a coincidence. Or maybe it is just totally inexplicable. Whatever it is, the team wins with him there. Numbers, analytics, nothing really can give good evidence as to why. But, again, does it really matter? 

The Phillies are in trouble. We thought these issues were behind us. After last year's miracle run, we thought that they would be prepared to have a full season. Especially after their busy off-season where they added Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and a ton of quality bullpen arms. And yet, here we are again. It is June, and the Phillies are not a playoff team. They aren't even on the bubble right now. They are 6th in the Wild Card race. It is a problem. They are not pitching well. Nor are they hitting well. We knew the fielding would suck. The base running being a mess is a problem too.

Now once again, they are going to need to dig themselves out of a hole. It took Joe Girardi being fired to inspire them to turn it around last year. It's unlikely they will fire the manager this year. So the players are just going to need to figure it out.

With that said, who is doing their job so far? Which players are most to blame for these issues? Two months into the season seems like a fair time to start judging their performances. Yesterday we looked at the hitters. So today we will look at the pitchers. Which starter is carrying their weight, and which one is not? Who out of the Bullpen needs to do a better job, and who has pitched great?

Once again, Wheeler has had some issues building up his arm strength early in the season. Last year it was because he missed most of Spring Training. This year he just did not get enough work. You would see it in games this year. His stuff would look great, and then he would suddenly lose it. His last start was great. He went 8 innings vs the Braves, with a season-high 12ks, just 3 hits, and no runs. It got his ERA down to 3.60. So overall, it is not too bad. But they are 6-5 in games he has pitched. That is not good enough. Wheeler is the Ace, and with that comes higher expectations. His struggles are part of the reason they are under .500.  

Grade- C 

Just who is Aaron Nola? For most of last season, we thought Nola turned a new leaf. Then he looked awful over his last 3 starts in the playoffs. And he has not looked better for much of this season. At no point has his ERA dropped under 4.0. He has had some good starts, but he follows those up with another disaster. It is getting harder and harder to trust Nola. He currently has a 4.7 ERA, and the team is 5-7 with him starting. Not close to good enough. There is no way they can pay Nola what he wants if this is what he is going to be.  

Grade- F 

Every time it feels like Walker is righting the ship, he has another game where he falls apart. He had actually looked decent, but then the Mets game happened. 4 innings and 3 runs allowed is not going to get it done. His ERA is now at 5.65. He is struggling to find the zone, and his fastball has been way too hittable. Phillies thought they were getting a 4th guy they could trust in the playoffs. Right now, it is hard to even trust him in a regular season game. 

Ranger had no Spring Training because of an injury. He barely got a rehab assignment. So some early struggles were to be expected. And it has not always been pretty in his first handful of starts. The 7.13 ERA shows that. But unlike the others, he has a real excuse. He has just 4 starts, and two of those were bad. One, he gave up 5 runs over 5 innings, but most of those came early, and he settled in. His last start was a promising sign. Ranger went 6.2 innings and gave up just 2 runs. Hopefully, there is more of that coming. Ranger is not a major concern. 

Grade- N/A

Oof. We thought Bailey Flater could be capable of being the 5th starter. They didn’t need him to be great. But could he at least keep them competitive in games? Apparently not. He went 0-7 with a 5.17 ERA before being sent down. They desperately need a 5th starter. Maybe he gets another chance if they get needy enough, but he gave you no reason to be hopeful things would be even better in that case. 

Grade- F 

They put Strahm in a tough spot. He is not a starter. Though for the first month of the season, that is what they asked him to do. To his credit, he did it well. But now he has pretty much already reached how many innings he threw last season. He has never thrown more than 60 and is approaching 40 heading into June. Don’t be surprised if you see him lose arm strength. But to this point, it is hard to ask him to do anything more than he has given them.  

Grade- A 

Before Alvarado got hurt, he looked like perhaps the best pitcher in Baseball. He held hitters to a WHIP and ERA of 0.63. 24 Ks in 14.1 innings pitched. He was mowing guys down. Unfortunately, he has been out since May 7th. But there is no arguing with what he is doing. He is rehabbing now, so hopefully he is back soon to anchor the bullpen. With how good the Phillies bullpen has been, imagine what they can be once he is back? Too bad the rest of the team is not carrying their weight. 

Grade – A 

If you looked at Craig Kimbrel’s stats out of context, you would say it is a failure. A 5.57 ERA is not good. What that stat leaves out though, is that a lot of it comes from a small handful of bad outings. He has come into games 23 times. In 20 of those he gave up 1 run or less. 16 times he gave up no runs. He got blown up in his first outing of the season against the Rangers, and then again on May 3rd vs the Dodgers. Those outings accounted for .2 innings and 7 runs. Over the rest of the season, he has a 3.10 ERA. Kimbrel has been good for most of the year. It doesn’t excuse those two bad outings, but you also can't hold them over him too much.  

Grade- B 

Soto is the epitome of a boom-or-bust pitcher. We talked about how two bad outings are dragging down Kimbrel. The splits are even wilder for Soto. He has appeared in 26 games. In 4 of those outings, his ERA is 50.15. In the other 22, his ERA is 0.42. He is either dominant or ruining games. I think you will take that given how dominant he has been in those other outings. Still, there will be some level of concern whenever he comes in, as we wonder if this is the blowup game. On the nights where that does not happen though, he is pretty much untouchable. 

You may be sensing a pattern with the Relief Pitchers. Where a few bad outings are dragging down their stats. But in Seranthony’s case, his ERA at least is not over-inflated. It is just 3.86. Which was surprising, because it feels like he has struggled this year. That is because early on he was allowing a lot of base runners. But his May was much better, In May his ERA was .93 and his WHIP was down to 1.29. So it looks like he is back to his usual self. Apart from those early struggles, he has actually been pretty dominant. 

Grade – A

Connor Brogdon is their relief pitcher with the most innings pitched. He often is the guy who has to come in to eat some innings when the starter falls on their face. And Brogdon has done a decent job in that role. He is nothing special. But as far as that role goes, he does it well. There are probably at least 4 guys in the bullpen you would go to before him in a tough spot. But you aren't panicking when you see him come out of the bullpen. 

Grade- B 

Vasquez has kind of come out of nowhere to be a force in the Phillies' pen. Across 17 appearances he has held opposing teams to an ERA of 1.42. Surprising because before this season the 29-year-old had barely seen the field in the MLB. The most appearances he has ever had in an MLB season was 9. He had 9 just in May for the Phillies and gave up a run in just 2 of those.  

Grade- A 

Early on, Bellatti was their go-to middle-innings guy. And at the start, he looked good in that role. But they were using him what felt like every night. And he quickly started to fall part. a small handful of outings blew his ERA up. Now he is not even on the team. Like with Soto and Kimbrel, if you take away those few bad outings, he looks really good. He doesn’t have the stuff they do. But I still think he could be a reliable middle-inning guy if they don’t overuse him like they were. 

Grade- C 

Yet another Relief Pitcher getting dragged down by a couple of bad outings. There are 3 outings where he had a combined 2 innings and 10 earned runs. Two of those were his first two outings. Apart from that though. In his other 8.1 innings though, he has given up no runs. Marte has been up and down, literally. They have sent him down to AAA multiple times. But they called him back up recently, and he is pitching well. Marte makes for a solid middle inning option.

Grade- B

Yea, Covey can't start again. His career numbers paint him as one of the worst MLB pitchers ever. Literally. He is 6-30 with a 6.60 ERA in his career. With the Phillies, his ERA is over 9. It was a desperation move from a team looking for any 5th starter they could get. But they would be better off with a bullpen game than throwing Covey out there again.

Grade- F

Hoffman joined the Phillies at the start of May. And since then, he has done pretty much everything you can ask from a back-of-the-bullpen guy. 10 appearances, just 1 earned run allowed. In 9.2 innings he has struck out 14 guys. 3 times he came and pitched 2 innings. For much of his career, Hoffman was not very good. Last year was his first season with an ERA under 4. Now he currently has an ERA under 1. If he keeps this up, he will be a very good option for the Phillies going forward.

Grade- A

3 Innings pitched and an ERA of 5.4? He will never be a great pitcher like his dad. But seriously, it is a little embarrassing an infielder has pitched 3 innings for them.