This Will Be Aaron Nola’s Last Season With The Phillies
Running back is an interesting position in 2023. If you are drafted in the first round you will likely spend 5 years with the team that drafted you and then be looking for a new house in a new city. Because if the player lives up to being drafted in the first round, then they aren’t resigned. Running back has been such a depreciated position that if a player ACTUALLY performs well then the team that he’s on is not going to want to pay him for a second contract. Worried that the drop off will happen when he is being paid top dollar. On the flip side, if the player underperforms then he will be looking for a home in a new city because….he underperformed. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.
Aaron Nola may as well be a running back this season.
Aaron Nola and the Phillies were unable to reach an agreement on a contract extension when spring training came to an end. Nola does not want to discuss an extension in season, which means that Nola will reach free agency for the first time in his career. And he is going to get PAID this offseason. But it wont be by the Philadelphia Phillies. That much is clear. Because the Phillies are prepared to treat Nola like NFL teams treat first round running backs. “Thank you for your service but your performance has priced you out of our price range.” This is the most logical outcome after a contract extension wasn’t reached.
The Phillies had to be worried about how Nola would deal with the pitch clock. The slowest starter in the rotation dealing with a clock that would force him to rush his pitches, concern was understandable. Nola has been a roller coaster during his Phillies career. The highs are high but the lows are low. Last season he was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA. 235 strike outs in 205 innings pitched. This followed a 2021 season where Nola struggled with a 9-9 record and a 4.63 ERA. Nola seems to have a great season, followed by a meh season, and then a great season. His inconsistency, along with not knowing how he would adapt to the clock, likely led to the Phillies having a price and not moving from it.
But now Nola is in a peculiar situation. Because if Nola pitches well, he prices himself out. But if Nola struggles, then why would you want a 31 year old pitcher struggling in the first year of a pitch clock. This is why Nola wont be a Phillie in 2023.
Salaries are always going up. So ultimately its tough to compare what Nola might get in free agency to those of the past, but I’ll try. Jacob deGrom signed for 5 years at an average salary of $37 million. Justin Verlander signed a 2 year deal for an average salary of $43 million. But those two are Cy Young winners while Nola is just a Cy Young finalist. A better comparison is Carlos Rodon who signed a 6 year contract for an average salary of $27 million. Rodon doesn’t have the resume that Nola has but his last 2 seasons have been exceptional. I think Nola would command more money on the open market than Rondon. Do you feel comfortable giving Aaron Nola $30 million a season?
The Phillies have been planning for this. It is one of the reasons they drafted Mick Abel and Andrew Painter. The Phillies were preparing for life without Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler (whos contract is up in 2024). The Phillies certainly hope that Andrew Painter heals from his injury and solidifies himself as a solid starter this season so they can move forward with him in 2024. The Phillies likely will go into next season with a rotation of Zach Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Bailey Falter and Andrew Painter.
When the Phillies didn’t reach an agreement on a deal with Nola it told you all you need to know about their mentality. There is a limit to their spending. Their payroll is projected to be $197 million in 2024 and that is with holes at first base, and bullpen. Will John Middleton want to exceed the luxury tax again?
So enjoy Aaron Nola this season. Because it will certainly be his last in a Phillies uniform.
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