Random Thoughts on Super Bowl 57
by John Kincade
TWO GREAT OFFENSES – ONE GREAT DEFENSE
The Super Bowl matchup with the KC Chiefs has an intriguing matchup between two very prolific offenses and one spectacular defense. It’s not hard to figure out which team has that defense. The Eagles are clearly superior and that edge may be exactly what they need to get past Patrick Mahomes.
The Eagles and their 70+ sacks have a chance to set the all time sack mark if they manage to get Patrick Mahomes to the ground 5 times. That is easier said than done, even with Mahomes hampered by a bum ankle. He was troubled by it in the Bengals game but was still mobile enough to orchestrate a last second drive to win the game.
The Eagles gashed the 49ers, the 2nd best run defense in the NFL, for 148 yards. They ran between the tackles and around the edge and managed to neutralize Nick Bosa with a tremendous offensive plan. The Chiefs have an issue here because they were 19th against the run. They also have an inexperienced secondary that isn’t completely healthy. The hallmark of their attack has been the ability to dominate through the air one week and then employing a heavy rushing attack the next.
The Eagles had a late season three week offensive run when they showed immense balance. The Packers, Titans and Giants games in early December showcased everything that this offense can be when it is clicking. They will need that type of attack to keep the Chiefs defense off balance. Chewing up clock by running the football might be another great strategy to employ. Limiting the possessions for Patrick Mahomes is a great recipe for success.
TEN POINTS = 3 LOSSES
The Chiefs were beaten 3 times this season. They lost an early season game to the Colts in Indianapolis. Then they were defeated by both the Bills and the Bengals. It was the 3rd consecutive loss to the Bengals which was then broken in the AFC Championship Game. You can look at their resume 2 ways. On one hand, the Chiefs lost to the two best teams in the NFL that they faced in the regular season. On the other hand, the Chiefs lost the three games by a collective ten points. That’s a pretty amazing mark. They had 9 wins by one score and 3 losses by one score. The Chiefs know how to play tight games and managed to win 75% of them.
27-27-2
Good News! The Eagles are the betting favorites in the Super Bowl. The bad news is that the favorites are rarely as impressive as we expect them to be. The betting favorite is a dead even 27-27-2 in the 56 Super Bowls already played. This is different than any regular season mark. The favorites have a far better winning percentage in regular season games. We already know that the Chiefs play tight games, the Eagles have played less of those. It would benefit the Birds to get ahead of the Chiefs early. If they are in obvious passing downs, the Eagles pass rush might be the huge difference maker!
