Yesterday, the US Men’s National Team played their first World Cup match since their 2014 round of 16 game in Brazil. Well, maybe I shouldn’t say “their” considering DeAndre Yedlin is the only player on the roster who was a member of the team back in 2014. They’re a very young side, but a talented one, and the expectations in a group that contains England and then two beatable teams in Wales and Iran have rightfully been high since the drawing that placed the USMNT in that group. Well, in the opening game against Wales Monday afternoon, the road to making it out of that group just got harder.

If you’re unfamiliar with how the group stage of the World Cup works, the top 2 teams in each group advance to the knockout stages. Each team will play the other 3 teams in their group once, with the amount of points gained from those results deciding who goes through to the next round. Each team earns 1 point for a draw, 3 points for a win, and 0 points for a loss. If teams are tied in points (which is very possible) by the end of group stage games, the tie breaker will be goal differential. So, that’s how it works, but how do the US odds stand to make it through? Not as good today as they looked before the game yesterday. England is the powerhouse of the group, a bona fide World Cup contender who throttled Iran yesterday 6-2 in their opening game. It would be surprising if England does not end up with 9 points. Iran is the runt of the litter, and after their loss, they are well on the way to losing all 3 of their contests and going pointless. It seems to be set for Wales and US to duke it out for the final spot.

Well, we saw that head to head matchup already, and it was as even on the scoreboard as it could possibly be. Despite getting out to an early goal from Tim Weah off a beautiful assist from Christian Pulisic, the US could not secure 3 points against a lesser Wales side. They surrendered a penalty late in the 2nd half by fouling Gareth Bale in the box, and then Bale pocketed it right side of the netting to even the scoring. That was how the game would end, tied 1-1, and it now creates a scenario that doesn’t necessarily depend on wins and losses for the middle teams in the group. The expectation is that both Wales and the USMNT will lose to England, and both defeat Iran. That means they would each finish with 4 points. If the US had pulled off the win yesterday, they could’ve simply beat Iran and probably found their way into the round of 16, but now they have to play England to a closer game than Wales, and beat Iran by a larger margin as well. It’s not a death sentence, especially considering the US is still the better side when compared to Wales, but not proving it in their opening game has made their road to the next round that much tougher.