Don’t Overthink The Decision To Start Aaron Nola In WS Game 1

We are inching ever closer to the start of the Phillies’ World Series matchup with the Houston Astros, and the anticipation is growing across the city and beyond. We’ll have to wait til day of to figure out the lineups, gather our nerve, and prepare to do battle with the best team (on paper) in baseball, but we do know one thing about the series opener at this point: Aaron Nola will get the ball. Rob Thomson has reportedly made the decision that Nola is the go to guy in Game 1, and despite how soundly Thomson has managed the Phillies since taking over for Joe Girardi in early June, some people have already begun to question the choice. Zack Wheeler has been the Phillies top pitcher this postseason, and despite a significant IL stint during the regular season, was very possibly their best hurler then too. So is it fair to second guess Thomson’s strategy? In my best Donovan McNabb voice, “I would say no.”

Zack Wheeler is absolutely incredible, but he’s not the only exceptional pitcher the Phillies employ. Aaron Nola has been outstanding over the past couple weeks, including taking a perfect game into the 7^th inning against these very same Astros. If there’s a drop off between Wheeler and Nola, it’s not a huge one. On top of that, Nola hasn’t thrown since October 19^th, which would make it 9 days since he would’ve last thrown when the Phillies take the field on Friday in Houston. Wheeler, meanwhile, just threw on Sunday. He would be on normal rest, but at the end of the regular season he had been pitching on an extra day of rest due to his IL stint in September. Nola throwing to not get rustier and Wheeler resting to give him that extra time is a prudent choice.

Wheeler has been a workhorse so far this postseason, so that also points in the direction of giving him an extra day of rest in favor of Nola, and it also assures the Phillies that Wheeler won’t have to face Justin Verlander, the Astros’ ace and clear favorite for the AL Cy Young Award this season. Wheeler will still throw in Game 2, and if there is a worry about later in the series, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wheeler on 3 days rest later in the series if the Phillies are in danger. It’s a marginal difference between decisions, and makes sense rest-wise. Don’t overthink it. Trust in Philly Rob; he’s gotten us this far.