By Dylan MacKinnon
Week 11 Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 63
Team Snaps- 70
Total Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 724
Team Snaps- 736
Wentz remains on track to reach 75%, although for the first time since week 2 he failed to play every snap. The Colts, with a huge lead over the Bills, put their backup in for the final drive. It drops his total percentage a little bit, but it wont impact the Eagles chances to get the first round pick. What may impact that pick is the fact the Colts won again, and are now firmly within playoff contention, but we can get to that in a bit.
Wentz could now miss his next 246 snaps before balling below 75%. It would take 4 games to miss that many snaps. In the case the Colts make the playoffs, it would take 315 snaps for him to fall below 70%. He would need to miss almost 5 games to miss that many snaps.
The Colts are averaging 66.9 snaps a game. At that rate, they will have around 1,138 snaps at the end of the season. 75% of that is 854 snaps. Wentz needs 131 more snaps to reach that projected target, and currently sits at 63.6% of the projected end of the year total. Wentz will only need to play in two games to surpass the hypothetical 75% line. Of course, it is only an estimate, and it is possible he could still fall below 75% even if he reaches that mark. But for that to happen the Colts would have to average more snaps per game in those final 4 games, than they did in the first 13. Since it is unlikely the Colts would be more effective on offense with one of their backups in, it is safe to say once Wentz reaches that mark he won’t fall below it.
In the case the Colts make the Playoffs he will only need to reach 70%. A mark he will cross either next week, or very early in week 13. 70% of the projected year-end total would be 797 snaps. He needs just 70 more snaps to reach that. But since it is likely Wentz will also pass 75%, and the Colts making the playoffs would make the pick the Eagles get worse, it is better to root against them making the Playoffs.
The question is if a playoff bid is possible for the Colts. The division may be out of reach. They cut it to a two-game deficit this week, but there are only 6 games left. And the Titans have the tiebreaker, making it effectively a 3 game lead. Colts could win out, and would still need the Titans to go 3-3 to claim the division. The Wild Card is very much in play for them though.
The pick is currently projected to be the 15th pick in the first round. However, that is subject to change after the rest of the week 11 games. With the Colts being so close to passing the 75% line, and there being absolutely no reason to worry about them sitting Wentz, it is fair game to root for them to lose all 6 remaining games. In those 6 games, they will play the Buccaneers, Texans, Patriots, Cardinals, Raiders, and Jaguars. Outside of the Texans and Jaguars, those are all difficult matchups vs potential playoff teams. They have one of the toughest remaining schedules. Which is good news for the pick they will be sending the Eagles way.