By Dylan MacKinnon
Carson Wentz played every snap and stayed healthy. We grow ever closer to him crossing the 75% threshold, and securing the Eagles a third first-round pick. A luxury they may need considering the state of their roster.
Fans seemed to have very little confidence in Wentz attaining that snap percentage earlier in the year. His injury history gave good reason for pause. On top of that many Eagles, fans feared the Colts may eventually bench him to prevent him from hitting 75%. But both of those fears have yet to materialize. To date, he has missed only 5 snaps. Wentz did his part. He played on two sprained ankles, and today he risked missing the birth of his second child to be at the game. His dedication to seeing the Eagles get that Colts pick is certainly admirable.
It was a win this week for the Colts, which is not ideal. But given they were playing the Jaguars it is also not surprising. The Colts are now 5-5 and remain just on the outside of the playoff race in the AFC.
Here is the final Snap count from this week, and the updated total snap count for the season.
Week 10 Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 64
Total Snaps- 64
Total Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 661
Total Snaps- 666
Wentz now could miss the next 221 snaps before he fell below the 75% mark. It would take the Colts almost 4 games to reach that many snaps. They have 7 games left. He can miss 284 snaps before falling below the 70% mark, which is relevant if the Colts manage to make the playoffs.
With the Colts averaging 66.6 snaps a game, they are on track to play a total of 1,133 snaps. Meaning Wentz is at 58.3% of their projected final total. Wentz will need to reach 850 snaps to surpass 75%. He will need to play 189 more snaps to reach what he should need for 75%. He is on track to do so after 3 more games.
If the Colts manage to make the playoffs, he needs to play a projected 793 snaps to reach 70%. This means 132 more snaps until he gets there. He can cross that mark after playing around 2 more games.
The question is can they make the playoffs. The division feels unlikely. They are back 3 games still, with each team having just 7 games left. The Titans also beat them twice, so it is effectively a 4 game lead. The Colts could win out, and they would still need the Titans to go 3-4 the rest of the way. Possible? Maybe. Likely? No.
But what about the Wildcard? That is much more wide open. They are one of 8 teams all within 1-2 games of each other for one of the 3 wild cards spots. But at this point, Eagles fans need to root against the Colts sneaking in. For one, it will result in the worst pick coming the Eagles way. But also, there is no benefit. Wentz is just as likely right now to reach 75% as he is 70%.
The only thing standing in the way of the Eagles getting the Colts pick is an injury. It was always silly to fear that the Colts may bench Wentz, though I admittedly fell into that trap early on. It would even sillier to fear it now with 3 games left before Wentz reaches 75%, and the Colts nowhere near being eliminated.
At this point, feel free to root against the Colts in every game remaining. The worst they play the better that pick will be. He is not going to be benched. They have shown their full commitment to him as the QB.
As of now, the Colts pick would fall in the 14 to 18 region of the first round. Were they to make the playoffs, it could be anywhere from 18 to 32. They still have the Bills, Bucs, Cardinals, Patriots, and Raiders to play. Hopefully, those all end up as losses, because their other games are the Texans and Jaguars, which will most likely win.
For now, root for good health for Wentz, and bad play by the Colts. Three more games and Wentz should have secured 75%. If he can do that, Santa may have a third first-round pick underneath the Christmas Tree for the Eagles.
As an aside. congrats to Carson on the birth of his second child. I joked earlier in the article about how kind he was to risk missing his child’s birth to keep playing and help the Eagles get the pick, but I am genuinely happy he did not end up missing his child’s birth.