By Dylan MacKinnon
Every week it becomes surer and surer the Eagles will be getting a third first-round pick in the 2022 Draft. After 8 weeks, Wentz has missed only 5 snaps. He once again played 100% of the Colts snaps. And he gets ever closer to hitting the magic number that would essentially guarantee he stays above 75% of the total snaps. A hefty snap count for the Colts in this week’s game helps move that needle even more. Here are the updated snap numbers after the Colts’ Week 8 loss to the Titans.
Week 8 Snap Count
Wentz Snaps- 72
Team Snaps- 72
Total Snap Count
Wentz could now miss the next 173 snaps before he falls below the 75% line. He can miss 223 snaps before he falls below 70%. That gives him a buffer of 2 and a half games he could miss and still be above the 75% mark.
This is important because what is likely the biggest threat to Carson Wentz’s playing time at this point, beyond an injury, is a positive covid test. If he had close contact or a positive test, he would likely miss a game because he remains unvaccinated and thus is beholden to the covid protocols. But the growing buffer he has means if he were to be held out of one game, it would not immediately put him below 75%.
The Colts average 65.5 snaps per game. That puts them on pace for 1,113.5 snaps on the season. At that rate, Wentz needs 836 snaps to be above 75%. Just 317 snaps to go before he hits that mark. He is on pace to reach that by playing 4.8 more games. If he completes the week 13 game vs the Texans, he should have more than enough snaps to stay above 75%
If they make the playoffs, he only needs 70%. While Playoffs currently seem unlikely, here are the numbers he needs to reach that mark. He would need 780 snaps to reach 70%. So he needs only 261 more snaps to get there and is on pace to pass it after 4 more games.
Even if he does not reach that game, he still might have enough to stay above 75%. These projections presume the Colts continue to have 65 snaps a game. But with a backup in, it is likely the Colts’ offense would get much worse, and thus be on the field less. Even if he only plays 12 games, it might be enough to keep him above 75%.
Some people are still worried the Colts would bench Carson if they fall further out of playoff contention. While that is a possibility, it is an unlikely one. For one, they would have to make that call very soon. And despite them now being 3 games behind the Titans, with two losses to them, they remain in the mix for one of the 3 wildcards. It is not a deep AFC this year, and despite the 3-5 start, a wildcard berth is not out of the question given 4 win teams are just on the outside of that race.
Also of note is what I mentioned last week. The Colts have had two chances this year to put a backup in to take snaps in garbage time by handing the ball to an RB to burn the clock. They kept Wentz in both times. To me, that is not the move of a team that is counting snaps and trying to preserve the first. They seem committed to Wentz. And benching him seems counterintuitive if they have future plans for him.
Still, it is probably best they do not completely implode, just to be safe. The Colts have some very winnable games remaining before week 13. A couple of wins should be enough to completely erase any idea of throwing the towel by sitting him. If he can stay healthy, and continue to play at a relatively high level, the Eagles should be getting that 1st round pick.
So the question becomes where will the pick be. As of now, it is projected to be around a top 10 pick. They have 3 wins for the time being. That will likely improve. A pick in the 8-15 range seems to be the most likely turnout.
In other Eagles draft news, the Dolphins lost again, and that pick is projected the be the 2nd overall pick. The combo of the Dolphins pick, the Colts Pick, and their own pick means it’s possible they could have 3 top 10 picks. With Howie Roseman as the GM, many fans are not excited by that prospect. But I suppose we will have to see what happens this off-season.